BLOOMINGTON, Ill. — Soy Capital Ag Services’ annual McLean County corn yield estimate survey shows the 2014 crop will yield a record 222.6 bushels per acre there. But with grain prices low, 220 bushel-per-acre yields will likely not be bountiful enough to offset prices and return a profit to producers, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey.

“A 220-bushel yield will not result in positive returns for corn, given current expected 2014 crop prices and given that farmland is rented near the average cash rent,” he concluded in a farmdocDAILY essay dated Aug. 26. “To have positive returns, yields must be exceptionally high.

“In this year, those farmers forward-contracting a substantial portion of 2014 production likely will have higher returns than farmers who did not contract. Due to differences in yields and marketing decisions, there will be a wide range in revenues across farms.”

Soy Capital, a division of Capital Bank and Trust Co., drew 1,590 samples from 159 locations on managed farms in every McLean County township by eight Soy Capital farm managers, to determine the corn yield estimate, explained Kevin Meiss, an assistant vice president.

“The result we came up with was a record yield of 222.6 bushels an acre. This is a record compared to any estimate we’ve done since 1997, by some 26.3 bushels an acre,” said Meiss, whose Bloomington-based company has been conducting yield estimates in McLean County since 1997.

Soy Capital’s corn yield estimate comes in 16 percent higher than the actual average McLean County yields for the past five years, with sample yield estimates ranging from 169.2-263.9 bushels. Most of the samples were pulled during the first and second weeks of August.

Soy Capital has a reputation for reliably predicting McLean County corn yields, compared with actual USDA-issued corn yield reports, according to Meiss. “We’ve done a good job predicting what’s coming. You can look at our history and compare it with actual yield data released in the spring of the following year; most of our estimates are within five or 10 bushels of the actual yield.”

McLean County was blessed during 2014 with some of the best conditions throughout the growing season of any year in recent memory. The addition of much needed late-season precipitation in the region – occurring post-survey – may mean an even more bountiful corn harvest than predicted by Soy Capital.

“Based on the moisture we’ve received lately and the cooler grain fill period we’ve had, I think we’re going to be close to or maybe even a little behind the actual yield this year,” said Meiss. “We just don’t know how big and heavy those kernels are going to be.”

Field surveyors reported the highest average plant population, second-highest ear count, large kernel sets and optimal plant health in recent county history. Consistent, near-optimum weather and growing conditions fueled the monster corn crop, Meiss noted.

McLean County is not the only Illinois region bracing for an avalanche of corn. Premier Cooperative in east-central Illinois estimates Champaign County farmers will reap a corn harvest averaging 221 bushels an acre. In Piatt County, Topflight Grain Cooperative is predicting a corn harvest that may reach 236 over a four-county region.

Schnitkey observed central and east-central Illinois farmers appear to have enjoyed better growing conditions than those located in other areas of the state. Overall, the Illinois state corn yield estimate is 188 bushels per acre, according to the USDA.

To read Schnitkey’s full article, Will High Yields Rescue 2014 Crop Returns? visit www.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/006407 print.html

To access Soy Capital’s Highlights of the 2014 McLean County Corn Yield Estimates, go to www.soycapitalag.com/ news/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/ Highlights-of-the-2014-McLean-County- Yield-Estimates.pdf