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Conference topics: Global population, climate change

 

By ANN HINCH

Associate Editor

 

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — Two months after the branding of the statewide initiative AgriNovus to advance agriculture’s standing through Indiana and the world, farm and agribusiness leaders sat together at the inaugural Governor’s Agriculture Conference in the state’s capital.

"I’ve always identified with that proverb, ‘iron sharpens iron,’" Gov. Mike Pence said on Jan. 16 to nearly 350 attendees, of bringing them together to network and generate new ideas.

Taking inventory of and preparing state ag assets to maximize food production, in the face of a growing population – nearly 2 billion more people worldwide by 2050, now a well-known estimate from the United Nations – and the potential effects of climate change on farmland, jumped out as the conference’s dominant topic. Cargill Executive Chair Greg Page said disagreements about the origins of climate change shouldn’t interfere with planning for potential changes to farming from it.

"Regardless of one’s view on climate change and its causes, it’s irresponsible for us not to have this discussion," he said, adding the projected risks of shifting climate on food production warrant a debate – rather than ignoring the topic altogether.

He noted plenty of food producers are reluctant to enter into dialogue on climate change because they fear bringing more government regulations on their industry by acknowledging possible outcomes. But, Page said, it’s necessary to pay attention to scientific projections, which include potentially major losses to the ag economy of the Midwest and South and gains in the upper United States if warmth permanently shifts north.

Those whose livelihoods depend on food production need to look at building different "what if?" economic risk scenarios into their future plans, he added – such as phenotypes of crops that can be grown in different ag zones, and how many. Page was on the committee for the Risky Business Project, a June 2014 climate-economic risk assessment through the year 2100 conducted by the Rhodium Group and commissioned by project chairs Michael Bloomberg, Henry Paulson Jr. and Thomas Steyer. "A defining characteristic of agriculture in the U.S. is its ability to adapt," the report noted.

But, it continued, "without adaptation, some Midwestern and Southern counties could see a decline in yields of more than 10 percent during the next 5-25 years, should they continue to sow corn, wheat, soy and cotton, with a 1-in-20 chance of yield losses of these crops of more than 20 percent." The full report can be accessed online at http://riskybusiness.org

"We need to talk even perhaps when we don’t agree," Page concluded.

Only a tiny percentage of attendees indicated they agreed entirely with speaker Dr. Jason Clay, head of the World Wildlife Fund’s Markets and Food effort, and his assessment of use of global resources. On average, he said in 2050 people will have nearly three times as much income as now. At the current pace of consumption, by 2050 the world’s population will live beyond the planet’s resources.

More income means more luxury to demand meat, milk and eggs and off-season produce; he said worldwide, people derive up to 14 percent of their calories from animal protein, and it’s growing. Not so long ago, this was at 10 percent – and with no changes in production methods, it stands to reason that 20 percent would require twice as many resources as 10, including land.

Counting land not currently eaten up by farming and non-arable deserts, cities and other uses, Clay said there is only about 23 percent more land possibly available for food production. He spoke of doing more with less as the future of farming, and of cutting food waste, as the best ways to double net food availability – as opposed to doubling food production, which he said cannot be done in 35 years.

Clay said 1 in 3 calories produced are wasted and never consumed as food; he thinks that can be halved. Added to all this, he said, is the specter of increasing drought from climate change and figuring out the wisest way to allocate water. But, he acknowledged discussion of all this is in part hampered by scientists talking more to each other than to the public.

A key factor is figuring out the best use and distribution of land for calories produced – and as per this conference, what Indiana’s role can be in more efficient production. Purdue University Ag dean Jay Akridge, Dow AgroSciences President Tim Hassinger and Elanco President Jeff Simmons each spoke of research and development across the state’s business and formal education sectors.

Hassinger noted it costs $250 million and about a decade to get a new crop protection product from invention to commercial use, and roughly $100 million for a new biotech trait in the same time. The rate of plant innovation is actually slower than it used to be.

Simmons spoke of milk production and consumption, and seemed to agree with Clay in that the answer is not more cows, for more milk, but better production methods.

Akridge said a constant question for the state’s researchers is "how do we improve plants?" and that despite the number of ag graduates from Purdue, society still needs more plant scientists and ag teachers. Pence also addressed this "skills gap" between need for and available talent – and said it’s a priority of his to make career and vocational education focused on agriculture available in every Indiana high school.

1/21/2015