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Fickle Kentucky weather may mean a late wheat harvest


By TIM THORNBERRY
Kentucky Correspondent

FRANKFORT, Ky. — Will Rogers once said “if you don’t like the weather in Oklahoma, wait five minutes; it will change.” The same may be said about Kentucky’s winter.
Since the beginning of March, the state has seen record snowfall, subzero temperatures, flooding conditions and 60-degree temperature swings. Matt Dixon, a University of Kentucky (UK) College of Agriculture, Food and Environment meteorologist, said while weather changes are not uncommon this time of year, the extreme shifts are somewhat unusual.
“There were quite a few records broken across the area. The National Weather Service put up statistics on the March 4 and 5 snowstorm and Lexington actually broke the all-time two-day heaviest snowfall total with 17.1 inches, breaking a record set in 1943,” he said.
Dixon said that snowfall was rare, with it coming in March, but it would have been a record even if it happened earlier in the winter.
Adding insult to injury, the snow was preceded by heavy rain, which raised river and stream levels. An immediate return to warmer temperatures caused a quick melt, adding to flooding worries. The knockout punch came last week when several inches of rain fell across the state, prompting many flood warnings across the region.
Dixon said so far in March, the state has averaged 4 inches of rain, a level usually seen over the course of the entire month, not the first two weeks. But the Kentucky Mesonet weather data system has recorded even higher amounts – as much as 6 inches in some areas.
Before the snows began in February, he said the state had entered a moderate drought stage. “The first seven weeks of the year through mid-February, each of those weeks saw below-normal rainfall. It wasn’t until the end of February with a big snowstorm and into March where we started seeing above-normal rainfall,” he said.
“That was on farmers’ minds, but I told them to wait and see because patterns could change – and they have.”
This wet pattern may be short-lived; longer-term forecasts are calling for below-normal precipitation, something he said would be a good thing at this time as farmers begin to think about spring planting.
Chris Pierce, a row crop producer from the southern part of the state, said the wet weather probably won’t affect spring planting but some wheat producers’ crop may be affected.
“If there is water standing on a field, there’s been nitrogen loss for sure,” he said. “The wheat is really trying to grow right now and I have seen a lot of growth this week as the temperatures have come up.”
Pierce has already applied fertilizer once this season but said he will likely apply again soon because of all the rain. “I’m probably going to apply my second shot of nitrogen earlier in anticipation of that nitrogen loss. This wheat is going to be damaged if (growers) can’t get in the field in the next 10 days.”
While he said it’s too early to say if yields will be affected, he does think the harvest will be later than average, especially if temperatures stay in the normal range.
With 637 acres of wheat, the weather conditions he has faced the last few weeks is a “big deal” and will become more so if there is a late harvest. That will mean a late planting date for double-crop soybeans.
3/19/2015