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Thanksgiving meal costs rise because of avian flu


By SUSAN BLOWER
Indiana Correspondent

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — The average price of a Thanksgiving meal for a family of 10 has topped $50 nationwide for the first time since the Farm Bureau has been doing its annual Marketbasket survey.
The price has hovered around $49 for the past four years, however, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) survey. Indiana’s own statewide survey shows more variation from year to year, but both reflect an increase in 2015 thanks to turkey price hikes.
The turkey market was affected by avian influenza earlier this year. In Indiana, the informal survey found that consumers could pay $25 for a 16-pound turkey, almost a $5 increase from last year. This is the cost to consumers who do not take advantage of coupons or special deals.
“Retail prices seem to have stabilized quite a bit for turkey, which is the centerpiece of the meal in our Marketbasket,” noted John Anderson, deputy chief economist for the AFBF. “There were some production disruptions earlier this year due to the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak in the Midwest.
“Turkey production is down this year, but not dramatically. Our survey shows a modest increase in turkey prices compared to last year.” With holiday deals, he said turkey prices could dip below last year’s average.
Despite this increase in price, Thanksgiving dinner is still a great deal, said Isabella Chism, Indiana Farm Bureau (IFB) second vice president.
“Even with the increase, the cost of this year’s meal averages only about $5 per serving,” noted Chism, who farms in Howard County. “Indiana’s farm families are honored to produce the food for the Thanksgiving dinner table and throughout the year.”
IFB’s survey (chart, Page 2) is part of a national survey coordinated by the AFBF.
Thirty-one volunteer shoppers around the state participated, and their list included turkey, bread stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a relish tray of carrots and celery, pumpkin pie with whipped cream and both coffee and milk – all in quantities sufficient to serve a family of 10 and leave plenty for leftovers.
Farm Bureau shoppers are asked to look for the best possible prices, without taking advantage of special promotional coupons or purchase deals.
Besides turkey, other food items showed only modest increases: a dozen brown-and-serve rolls, up 23 cents; stuffing, which increased by 14 cents to $2.54 for a 14-ounce bag; frozen pie crusts, up 7 cents to $2.40 for a two-crust package; a half-pint of whipping cream, up 6 cents to $1.95; and pumpkin pie filling, up 5 cents for a 30-ounce can, to $3.19.
“Despite concerns earlier this fall about pumpkin production due to wet weather, the supply of canned product will be adequate for this holiday season,” Anderson said.
Among the items that declined in price were 3 pounds of sweet potatoes, which dropped by 39 cents to $3.32 per pound; frozen peas, which dropped by 31 cents to $1.07 for a 16-ounce package; a collection of miscellaneous items including coffee and ingredients necessary to prepare the meal (butter, evaporated milk, onions, eggs, sugar and flour), which decreased by 30 cents for a total of $3.18; and whole milk, which dropped by 24 cents to $2.69 per gallon.
Small decreases were also recorded for fresh cranberries, down 5 cents per 12-ounce bag to $2.19, and a 1-pound relish tray of carrots and celery, which dropped by 2 cents to 80 cents.
The stable average price reported this year by Farm Bureau for a classic Thanksgiving dinner tracks closely with the government’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food eaten at home. For October, the most recent month available, the food at home CPI posted a 0.7 percent increase compared to a year ago.
IFB first started participating in the national Marketbasket survey in 1993.While it does not make any scientific claims about the data, it is an informal gauge of price trends around the nation. Farm Bureau’s survey menu has remained unchanged, to allow for consistent price comparisons.
11/25/2015