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Views and opinions: Year starting cold; significant snows could soon follow, too

Mother Nature has decided to kick off 2018 the same way we finished 2017 – and that is cold. Strong high pressure moved in over the region earlier this week and it looks to stay on through the coming weekend.

 

We do have an active precipitation pattern for the region, both in the short term and through next week. We will see a couple of fast-moving clipper systems go through, starting with one for Wednesday. This wave does not have a lot of moisture with it, but with a deep layer of cold air already here, we think it may be able to have a slightly higher snow-to-water ratio, and allow for some slightly higher totals.

We have similar thoughts with the next clipper, too. For Wednesday, we are looking at a coating to 2 inches across 60 percent of the Eastern Corn Belt. After a day’s worth of break, our second clipper comes in on Friday with similar snow potential: a coating to 2 inches over 70 percent of the region.

North and northwest winds will be seen behind the east wave, meaning we have to keep an eye out for lake effect snows in southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana, along with northern Ohio.

Temperatures through the balance of this week will stay a good 10-20 degrees below normal. Winds have subsided from the early-week gusts we saw, so wind chills have improved; however, we still would advise to be wary of the wind chills, particularly in northern parts of Indiana, Michigan and northwestern Ohio.

We expect single-digits and teens for highs over most of the region, with 20s possible in southern Indiana, southern Illinois and northern Kentucky. Overnight lows can still be in the single-digits and subzero. Temps will try to start moderating as we move into the weekend, but still will do no better than normal to slightly below-normal levels.

Next week could turn out quite interesting. We currently see a strong front sweeping in from the west and north. This front will trigger strong southwest winds ahead of it and will have a strong flow of moisture off the Gulf; however, cold air is still here. So we think there is potential for some significant snows on Jan. 8, and a reinforcing front, complete with colder air and more strong moisture flow from the south, could move in for Jan. 10, bringing another significant snow event.

It is too early to talk snow totals yet, but liquid equivalent precipitation could be between a half-inch and 1.5 inches over 90 percent of the region. Perhaps we see enough warming to get some rain in southern areas, or perhaps not.

The maps show 24-hour precipitation for Jan. 9 and the high temperatures for that same period. These maps would hint at a sloppy, wintery mess over the southern half to one-third of the region and full-out snows in the north.

But, at this point it all comes down to two things: How much do temperatures truly climb ahead of the first front’s arrival on Monday? And, what track does low pressure take up the front? Stay tuned to Hoosier Ag Today through the rest of this week and weekend as we hone in on this snow potential.

 

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.

1/11/2018