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Views and opinions: Colder temperatures will not help pace of planting

 

Cold air is here, as expected. Our near-term forecast is basically unchanged. Temperatures will average 10-12 degrees below normal as we finish the week.

However, remember that normal temperatures are climbing every day as we move through April. So, even below-normal temperatures are getting better, and we will see soil temperatures climb to areas we can plant into. But, the colder-than-normal temperatures just do not speed us along the way warmer temperatures would.

And, the cooler temperatures slow our drying just a bit, as well. However, that being said, we see less frequent and less intense moisture in our forecast this week than last week, so we feel slightly better about our planting prospects over the coming couple of weeks than maybe we did last week.

We are dry at midweek for a larger chunk of April 18, but clouds will be building through the afternoon. South winds are taking temperatures up a little bit ahead of the system and we could actually see temperatures above normal for April 19 as precipitation moves through. This will be a short lived phenomenon.

Scattered light rain showers break out closer to sunset on April 18 and then linger though most of April 19. Rain totals still look to be from a few hundredths to a quarter-inch, but we are increasing coverage to 80 percent of Indiana.

Dry weather is expected for April 20-22. This is an improvement in our forecast, and may end up being the longest dry stretch we have seen in a little while.

Temperatures stay cool for the end of the week and start of the weekend, as we continue to see mostly a northwestern flow dominate the Eastern Corn Belt. The map shows temperatures compared to normal this Sunday afternoon. This map is similar to the set up for Friday and Saturday, too – we just are on the cool side.

However, on April 23, winds turn more south and southwestern ahead of our next system for early next week. This should allow temperatures to moderate back closer to normal. We do not expect a big push above normal; but still, April 23 may end up bringing the warmest temperatures of the next seven days.

April 23 also marks the arrival of our next system into the region. This low pressure circulation will come from the southwest, nosing moisture into southwestern Indiana to start the day on April 23. It continues to push north through mid and late afternoon, finally bringing action into northern Indiana by midnight Monday night.

Scattered showers linger and expand eastward into Ohio through April 24. Rain totals look to be dependent heavily on geographic location. From I-70 southward, we have rain totals of a quarter-inch to three-quarters of an inch with the heaviest action closer to the Ohio River and coverage near 90 percent. From I-70 north, we escape with a few hundredths to two-tenths and coverage more like 50 percent.

We should be dry for the start of April 25, and a strong Canadian high pressure slowly sinks off to the southeast. That keeps the region dry for April 25-27, and may also allow south winds to keep temperatures near or slightly above normal for the second half of next week.

A cold front works in from the northwest for April 28-29. Rain with that front will remain in the half-inch to 1-inch range with coverage at 80 percent of Indiana. Behind that we look dry for the remainder of the month into early may.

However, that dry forecast is rooted in yet another Canadian high, so that means we have the potential to see a cold finish to April and start to May, with temperatures swinging back to potentially 5-15 degrees below normal.

 

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.

4/18/2018