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Colder than normal temps will not help planting pace

We have a much better outlook going forward this week than last. Temperatures are still on the cool side for this time of year, but we are not so dramatically below normal in our outlook this morning.

 

In addition, we are seeing some dry windows emerging across the region. We only have two systems crossing the Eastern Corn Belt in the next two weeks, and there should be significant dry down following each one. So, let’s break things down.

Dry weather sits over the region April 25-26. We may see some minor moisture still trying to exit eastern Ohio through the day April 25, and that may spawn some clouds all the way back closer to the Ohio-Indiana line; but generally, dry weather dominates. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for these dry days, but will still be pleasant, and we should see some drying.

A long, sweeping front moves though the entire corn belt for April 27. The front hits Eastern Corn Belt locations early afternoon on April 27 on through the overnight. Moisture does not look overly impressive, but we do see nearly 90 percent coverage as the front passes over all parts of the region.

Rain totals will be one-tenth to four-tenths of an inch. But, action is done in Ohio by the morning of April 28.

A nice dry window emerges for the weekend through May 1. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal as high pressure sets up over the top of us. This should provide a good window for field work, at least for a couple of days, maybe more for areas that get the lower end of the rain range from the April 27 front.

A strong, powerful front brings rain and thunderstorms for night of May 1 through Wednesday. Rain totals look to be a half-inch to 1 inch with coverage at 100 percent of Indiana. Strong to severe weather is possible from the front. Potential rain totals are on the map.

The entire rest of our 10-day forecast period is free of significant rainfall at this time. We should see a dry window from the afternoon of May 3 through at least May 8. Temperatures will be slightly below normal as a Canadian high dominates that dry period, but still, we should see enough drying to allow for fieldwork in that window. Sunshine will dominate.

So, the forecast looks better than the past few weeks, with enough space in-between systems to allow for planting. We have seen a few delays, particularly in the south from the rain earlier in the week, but April 27 will be the day we keep our fingers crossed for as little rain as possible from that front.

If we escape with only a tenth or two, we should see significant planting progress as we head toward May 10. Temperatures still lag normal for the most part, but are staying closer to it as we flip the calendar into May.

 

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.

4/27/2018