Not much in the way of significant news throughout the week, as typical for this time of year in the grain markets; most traders are already in holiday mode. Soybeans have managed to hold their own after a rough start to the week, while corn and wheat are testing the downside of the most recent trading range.

Corn traders continue to monitor what is taking place in the crude market, as selling pressure there has ramped up significantly. The crude complex has lost 31 percent in the last seven weeks, hitting its lowest level in a year to close out the week.

Saudi Arabia continues to increase production in the face of OPEC cuts, while the United States and other suppliers are hitting record production levels as well. President Trump applauded the move lower, thanking the Saudis and proclaiming prices should move “even lower.”

As we’ve discussed before, though the corn market wasn’t quick to follow oil higher, the move lower is troubling. RINs values continue to languish at multi-year lows with ethanol grind margins barely above zero. Rumors hit the marketplace last week that two major plants would be shutting down due to poor margins, though the owners of said plants were quick to say this is untrue.

Ethanol production numbers for the week showed a slight slowdown versus two weeks ago, now coming in just slightly below the pace needed to meet USDA expectations.

On top of the trouble the ethanol industry is experiencing when it comes to grind margins and the oil market, the EPA announced last week it will reset the values required in the Renewable Fuel Standard. While the reset is necessary due to our lack of infrastructure to meet the second-generation biofuel requirements (ethanol produced from algae, corn stover and the like), there is a concern this could result in a lowering of corn-based ethanol blending.

A lobbyist from The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers told Reuters the group will push to tie ethanol blend mandates to projected fuel demand, as opposed to a set number across the board. He went on to state that though the current ethanol target for 2019 is 15 billion gallons, it should be closer to 14 billion, which is 9.7 percent of the current expected gasoline demand.

The initial reset targets are expected to be announced in January 2019, with a public comment period to follow. The EPA hopes to have final levels set by November 2019.

Several stories out of China circulated the news cycle last week as the G-20 summit and the highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi will take place this week. First, President Trump tweeted late last on Nov. 16 that he didn’t feel additional tariffs would be necessary, if China was willing to negotiate.

This was followed by a well-respected former Chinese trade negotiator slamming the country’s approach to the trade war, stating agricultural commodities should be the last thing used as a bargaining chip in any trade battle.

In addition to divided ideas on how the country should deal with trade tensions, African swine fever was confirmed in China’s largest pork-producing region, with officials announcing a significant crackdown on the disease and transportation of hogs going forward. It is obvious containing the disease is nearly impossible, as many producers are still working to transport hogs or hide expected cases.

As a result, officials also announced they will reward whistleblowers. Hong Kong showing up as a major pork buyer in recent export sales did not go unnoticed, either.

Cattle on feed numbers were considered supportive, with total on feed coming in slightly below expectations at 103 percent, placements were much lower than anticipated and marketing was above expectations. Cold storage was friendly to hogs, with frozen belly stocks at a 52-week low, while overall pork stocks were down 5 percent from a year ago.

Looking ahead to this week as of this writing, most attention will be focused on the G-20 summit. Conversations about making changes to the World Trade Organization and its member countries are likely to be discussed, as well.

Otherwise, harvest is expected to wrap up for the most part, likely leaving buyers struggling to find easy to buy supplies as we work into December.

Angie Setzer is the Vice President of Grain for Citizens Elevator in Charlotte, Mich. Her market commentary can be found on Twitter by @GoddessofGrain and online at www.citizenselevator.com

The opinions and views in this commentary are solely those of Angie Setzer. Data used for this commentary obtained from various sources are believed to be accurate.