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Early hog export reports may not be trend for rest of ’07

Pork exports for February 2007 were down 1.5 percent from a year earlier. This is the first month to be below 12 months earlier since July 2006 and only the second month to be below a year earlier since August 2003. However, for January and February pork exports were up nine percent from last year.

The USDA estimate for 2007 pork exports calls for an increase of 11 percent from 2006. So, hopefully, the results in February are not a trend for the remainder of the year.

Our January-February pork exports were up 26.8 percent to Japan from last year and up 2.5 percent to Canada, down 16.8 percent to Mexico, up 13.3 percent to Russia, up 21.2 percent to South Korea, up 37 percent to mainland China and Hong-Kong, down 61.8 percent to Taiwan, down 37.1 percent to Caribbean and up 23.4 percent to other compared to the same months of 2006.
Pork imports for January-February 2007 were down nine percent from last year.

For the first two months of 2007 net pork exports as a percent of production at 10.7 percent was up 1.44 percentage points from a year earlier. These larger net pork exports are the major reason for the growth in live hog demand in recent months.

Live hog imports from Canada for January and February were up 11.3 percent from 12 months earlier. Feeder pig imports were up 10.2 percent and slaughter hog imports were up 13.7 percent from 2006.

Retail pork prices in March 2007 were up one percent from February 2007 and up 2.2 percent from March of 2006. For January-March retail pork prices were up 1.2 percent from a year earlier.

Hog producers received all of the increase in retail prices, plus some because marketing margins for the three months were down one percent from 12 months earlier.

As a result of the higher retail prices and smaller marketing margins live hog prices for January-March were up eight percent from the same months in 2006.

Barrow and gilt slaughter weights for the week ending April 14 were down 0.4 pound from a week earlier, but up 0.3 pound from a year earlier. This is only the second week for the weights of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota to be above 12 months earlier since August 2006. This data indicates marketings to the present are about the same as a year earlier in the Midwest.

Cash live hog prices showed a good rally this week with prices from $2.50-$4 per cwt. higher Friday morning than a week earlier. Weighted average carcass negotiated prices Friday morning were $1.42 per cwt. lower to $2.26 per cwt., higher compared to seven days earlier.

The top live prices for select markets Friday morning were $46.00 per cwt. at Peoria, Ill. and St. Paul, Minn. $48 per cwt. and interior Missouri $46.75 per cwt.

Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain or Glen Grimes may write to them in care of this publication.

4/25/2007