By TIM THORNBERRY
Kentucky Correspondent

LEXINGTON, Ky. — Once considered the king of crops in Kentucky, burley tobacco has been on a slow descent since tobacco quotas began their decline nearly a decade ago, coupled with the federal buyout that did away with the quota system altogether.

This year’s planting isn’t showing signs of changing that trend, as farmers prepare to either set out a new crop or get out of the burly business once and for all. Will Snell, an ag economist with the University of Kentucky (UK) College of Agriculture, said while planting intentions are still on the decline, burley isn’t the only game in town.

“According to USDA’s recent planting intentions report, tobacco acreage in Kentucky will be down about two percent in 2008, but there is quite a significant variation among the different types of tobacco grown in the Commonwealth,” he said. “Burley, which historically has dominated the distribution of tobacco production in Kentucky, is forecast to decline by 6000 acres, or approximately 8 percent below last year’s acreage.

“On the other hand, dark tobacco, which is grown in the western part of the state, is on the rise in Kentucky in response to profitable and expanding domestic demand opportunities. Smokeless tobacco consumption, the primary use for dark tobaccos, has been increasing steadily in the U.S. over the past 20 years.

“In addition, the entry of a new major buyer in the smokeless market with virtually no inventory, coupled with the introduction of new smokeless products in the marketplace, has resulted in the industry calling for additional acres in 2008,” he said.
The USDA estimates total dark tobacco acres in the state will be up by more than 4,000 acres, or 33 percent higher than last year’s plantings.

“As a result of these trends, dark tobacco is becoming a more prominent crop in Kentucky,” said Snell.

“Historically, the value of dark tobacco production has only accounted for around five to seven percent of the total value of Kentucky tobacco production, or around $50 to $60 million annually.

“But last year, dark tobacco sales totaled around $85 million, and with a good growing season coupled with anticipated favorable prices, Kentucky dark tobacco growers could produce a crop worth more than a record $100 million in 2008, representing over 25 percent of the state’s $350 million tobacco industry and a significant share of total crop receipts.”

Snell said favorable price expectations from other crops will also play a role in Kentucky farmers planting less burley this year despite some potential demand opportunities in the export market.

What about the weather?

The wet weather that has covered the state most of the winter and now into the spring season has put a damper on getting crops out regardless of what farmers intend to plant.

Tobacco growers are still in good shape as far as timing is concerned; however, dry conditions for early tobacco are much more favorable than the wet conditions of late.

The real concern now is for corn growers in the western part of the state, who are in a bind waiting for an extended dry spell.
 “There’s no corn in the ground here at all,” said Rankin Powell, Union County agent for agriculture and natural resources with the UK Cooperative Extension Service. “Over the past 10 years, we would generally have a good bit of corn in the ground by now and all our anhydrous ammonia. We’ve only put out about 10 percent of the anhydrous.”

Union County is the state’s top corn-producing county, where planting usually begins in late March and finishes by mid-April. This year heavy rains have put many Ohio River bottom fields under water.

Tom Priddy, UK agricultural meteorologist, said the weather-maker known as La Nina is to blame. The phenomenon generally causes wet winters in this part of the country, which has been the case this year.

“We’ve really been in the crosshairs,” Priddy said. “But maybe this will be the last of it, and we will head into a more normal pattern.”
Long-term forecasts are calling for a return to that normal weather pattern, but that might not last too long, Priddy warned, saying if the La Nina lasts into the summer and even into the fall as some weather models suggest, it could mean a return to dry weather – something state farmers are all too familiar with after last year’s record-breaking drought.

“La Nina is a big question,” he said. “As we shift into May and June, if it remains strong, drier conditions are likely and timely rains will be extremely important.”

Priddy added that farmers should keep an eye on drought conditions to their south, noting that if the dry conditions there deepen into the summer, it could signal a northward movement producing the same conditions here.