Last Friday, Congress finally gave U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke what they so desperately begged for: $700 billion in taxpayer dollars to shore up the financial industry

The irascible Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank used this analogy: “We were the EMTs rushing to the rescue of an economy that suddenly found itself choking, but now we have to perform more serious reform.”

So, if last week’s mantra in Washington was, “Git ‘er done,” the sentiment has now clearly shifted to, “We’ve only just begun.”
Our economic and political leaders assure us there’s more work to be done: more regulations on banks and financial institutions, more housing foreclosures, more bankruptcies, more overall economic sluggishness and, of course, more pundits ready to pronounce that the sky is, indeed, falling.

Personally, I prefer to look for a strong dose of healthy perspective in difficult times like these. That’s why I was heartened to read economist Robert J. Samuelson’s latest Newsweek column, “Is This a Replay of 1929?”

An excerpt from his column posted online Oct. 3: “There are parallels between then and now, but there are also big differences … Unlike then, the government has moved quickly, if clumsily, to contain the crisis. We need to remind ourselves that economic slumps – though wrenching and disillusioning for millions – rarely become national tragedies.

“Since the late 1940s, the United States has suffered 10 recessions. On average, they’ve lasted 10 months and involved peak monthly unemployment of 7.6 percent … Joblessness, (at) 6.1 percent in September, would have to rise spectacularly to match post-World War II highs.

“This doesn’t mean the economy won’t get worse,” Samuelson continues. “It will. The housing glut endures. With unemployment rising, cautious consumers have curtailed spending. Economies abroad are slowing, hurting U.S. exports. Banks and other financial institutions will suffer more losses. But these are all normal symptoms of recession.”

Not a national tragedy, but still plenty of suffering to go around for everyone, including America’s farmers, who for many years have relied heavily on exports for a significant portion of their profits.
As the futures markets closed last week, it appeared traders were concerned that a global economic slowdown would reduce demand, both domestic and foreign, for America’s corn, wheat and soybeans. Soybean futures for November closed last week at just $9.92 a bushel, the lowest price in nearly a year.

Any concerns about an early frost hurting soybean yields have virtually vanished, as farmers are on pace to produce close to 3 billion bushels.

Wheat prices also suffered in Chicago last week, largely due to the growing realization that worldwide wheat supplies are climbing, thanks to improved growing conditions in several countries where drought and natural disaster have hit hard. December CBOT wheat closed at $6.40-1/4.

December corn closed Friday at $4.54 a bushel, virtually unchanged from the week before. News that the corn harvests were producing respectable yields around the Corn Belt also put pressure on prices.
But again, I found this perspective from Wachovia analyst Bill Nelson, quoted in last Friday’s “Commodity News for Tomorrow” e-newsletter: “If you believe USDA stats, there’s seldom any contraction for world demand for corn and soybeans. History is a pretty strong indicator that demand continues to increase.”

The optimists among us have been saying for several years that there’s never been a more exciting time to be in agriculture. I agree; but I also think at this point, many farmers would gladly exchange a portion of that excitement for a good helping of solid certainty about tomorrow.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments may contact Lew Middleton by writing to him in care of this publication.