By ANN HINCH
Assistant Editor

ST. LOUIS, Mo. — By 2022, under federal mandate, 16 billion gallons per year of ethanol used in the United States will need to be manufactured from non-cornstarch, or cellulosic, sources.

It’s no surprise scientists are trying to figure out how that should be done, and from what material – but location and transportation are also up in the air, as well as how such plants can be grown without substantially adding to the atmosphere some of the very greenhouse gases biofuel is intended to reduce from the tailpipe.
At the “Transition to a Bio Economy” conference hosted in St. Louis by Farm Foundation last week, several researchers gave presentations on studies in their parts of the country. Nancy Hodur, a research scientist in agribusiness and applied economics with North Dakota State University, gave an overview of how the cellulosic mandate could benefit her state, as one example.

North Dakota

Taking a 50 million gallon-per-year (gpy) corn ethanol plant as her base comparison, Hodur listed its direct financial benefits to North Dakota: $12.5 million of initial construction expenditures – or 15 percent – went to the state; it spends $16.8 million in annual operations, not counting corn purchase; and it employs 40 workers. (She didn’t count corn because if it wasn’t purchased for ethanol, it would still be counted in the state economy as a sale elsewhere.)

A cellulosic ethanol plant is more expensive to build, so she estimated the state’s 15 percent benefit would be $26.4 million in capital expenditure, and annual benefits to balers, transporters and growers of feedstock (at $40 per ton for switchgrass or miscanthus, for example) of $53 million. It would also likely employ 77 workers, with a $2.7 million payroll.

Assuming a 50 million gpy standard, Hodur estimated 320 plants will be needed. If North Dakota gets even a fraction of those, she pointed out it would add billions of dollars to the state’s economy, and at least hundreds of new jobs.

“The potential economic implications of this emerging biomass industry are big,” she said, adding such farming and plants could change the makeup of rural Midwest and Great Plains counties. “This (study) gives an idea of how big.”

Illinois

Madhu Khanna, professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois, talked about growing cellulosic crops such as corn stover, switchgrass or miscanthus in Illinois.

If all the corn stover in the U.S. this year could be converted to biofuel, she said it would make only about seven billion gallons a year. In Illinois, stover can be produced at a volume of 2-4 tons per acre producing 283.4 gallons of ethanol (compared to 404.9 gallons for cornstarch), whereas switchgrass can be grown at 3-6 tons (volume equivalent to stover) and miscanthus – a 14-foot-high perennial – can be grown at 12-18 tons, or 809.7 gallons.

Southern Illinois, Khanna said, is ideal for growing miscanthus and, to a lesser extent, switchgrass – without using as much of the more profitable corn-friendly soil to the north. She said nitrogen application to miscanthus and switchgrass is a fraction of that used for corn.

“The more biomass can be produced per hectare of land, you could really spread out those opportunities” for growers, she said.
Another scientist advocating the Midwest, especially the Upper Mississippi River Basin, as good for growing the “second generation of biofuel” crops was Silvia Secchi, also a UoI professor. She pointed out these non-commodity grasses and woody plants would have to be worth farmers’ while to grow in the first place; cellulosic ethanol plants would have to offer relatively high prices to convince farmers to switch out from corn in some locales.

“It’s obvious the bioeconomy is good for farmers,” she said. “But what really matters is if the corn remains more profitable than soybeans.”

The South

One researcher addressed a southern region of the U.S. Michael Popp, of the University of Arkansas Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, spoke briefly on his study of perennial switchgrass and forage sorghum in his state.

Possible income to growers from switchgrass, based on 2007 data, ranged from just over $18 per dry ton on cropland – round-baled and stacked – to over $23 on pastureland. For sorghum, the range was slightly higher. (This compares to Secchi’s range of $75-$125 for a metric ton of switchgrass in her study based on 1997 data.)

At the end of the first day of the conference, Burton English pointed out most researchers’ focus seems to be on the Midwest and Plains States as biomass producers. But, as an agricultural economics professor with the University of Tennessee who studies bio-based energy, he wanted to know why they are looking at commodity cropland when there is perhaps more suitable, less rich soil in the South that may better support switchgrass and the like.

A few years ago, he said, the U.S. Department of Energy chose to invest in corn stover cellulosic research. He asserted it was a political decision that showed limited applicability across the country.

“If corn stover was out of the picture, where would Illinois be producing cellulosic ethanol?” he wondered. “It seems like the technology being selected today, and supported, is going toward the Midwest – and I’m not sure that’s the best place.”