By KEVIN WALKER
Michigan Correspondent

DAVIS, Calif. — In all likelihood the passage of California’s Proposition Two will result in the elimination of the egg laying industry in California.

That is the assessment of a study conducted by researchers at the University of California (UC), Davis published last summer. Proposition Two (Prop 2) was passed as a ballot initiative in November. It mandates, among other things, that egg-laying hens be given enough room to flap their wings and turn around in their cages.

The research, conducted by Daniel Sumner and several others at the UC’s Agricultural Research Center, concluded that Prop 2 will mean the end of cage housing systems for egg-laying operations in the state. That’s because non-cage housing systems of egg production are much higher in cost and can’t compete with out-of-state cage housing systems. Sumner also concluded that, since most non-cage housing systems are run by operations that also employ cage housing systems, the viability of even the non-cage operations in California is in doubt.

“Our analysis indicates that the expected impact would be the almost complete elimination of egg production in California within the six-year adjustment period,” the study reported. “Non-cage production costs are simply too far above the costs of the cage systems used in other states to allow California producers to compete with imported eggs in the conventional egg market. The most likely outcome, therefore, is the elimination of almost all of the California egg industry over a few years.”

According to the study, what will happen during the six-year transition period is pretty clear. Eggs are already imported into California from other states, including Utah, Missouri, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota and elsewhere. Since egg-laying operations won’t be able to compete with their out-of-state competitors, all of California’s eggs will come to be imported during the transition period.

Since California already imports a lot of its eggs from many different producers, it won’t be that difficult for these producers to increase their production to make up for the lack of production within California.

Moreover, the authors stated, California’s consumers will see little if any price increases for eggs. Eggs will still be produced primarily in cage housing systems, just not inside California.

As the authors wrote, “with six years to adjust to the new market situation and given the less than two-year lifecycle of a typical laying hen flock, there is time for complete adjustments to expand production in other states so that they can meet the new market opportunities in California.

Since national egg demand would not change significantly, the anticipated adjustment does not require additional pullets, additional feed or more inputs on a national basis.

The relocation of egg production can be relatively rapid.
“Second, the new market opportunities for shipments into California entail an expansion of production in other states by less than 10 percent, which would be spread across many locations and farms that already have well-established relationships with buyers in California. The implication is that substantial new out-of-state egg supply could be forthcoming within a six-year horizon at little, if any, additional per-unit cost, and much less than the additional cost that a shift to non-cage housing would entail for California producers.”

Other states have enacted similar, though less restrictive, initiatives regarding animal welfare, according to Ernie Birchmeier, the Michigan Farm Bureau’s livestock and dairy specialist. These include Florida, Arizona and Colorado.

The state’s farm bureau is currently holding its annual meeting and one of the main topics of conversation is animal welfare. A farm bureau spokeswoman said that Prop 2 was a main impetus for the discussion
“We’re trying to learn what happened there,” Jill Corrin said.
The farm bureau vehemently objects to Prop 2.

“Whenever you force the livestock industry to make structural changes, it costs more to produce that product,” Birchmeier said. “I certainly think it’s an issue that’s on the radar screen. It’s an issue we all need to be concerned about.”

Birchmeier said that groups such as the Humane Society of the United States are pushing a radical agenda.

“Their website promotes a vegan agenda,” he said.

He said he believes that Prop 2 will end egg-laying operations inside California and that this outcome can’t be reversed since the ballot initiative changed the state’s constitution.