As we stand at the threshold of a new year, it is time to look ahead and imagine what the next 52 weeks will be like. At the beginning of 2008, I predicted a number of events would occur.

To my surprise, many of them did. I correctly predicted the passage of property tax reform in Indiana that favored homeowners and not farmers, that anti-CAFO legislation would be defeated, that a COOL program would be implemented, and that energy would be the top agricultural issue of the year. I was pretty good on my market prediction for the first half of the year, but not the second.

I also predicted the animal rights movement would suffer a setback – well, that certainly did not happen. So what do I see for 2009?
I haven’t the foggiest idea, and anyone who says he does is either a liar or nuts. About the only thing I can say with any degree of certainty about 2009 is that it will not be anything like 2008, or 2007, or 2006, or any other year in recent memory.

Déjà Vu is the experience of feeling sure that one has witnessed or experienced a new situation previously. This is not likely to be a feeling many of us have in the coming year. More likely we will experience Vu Jade. Described by the late comedian George Carlin, Vu Jade is the feeling that you have never been here before and nothing looks familiar. That is how I see 2009.

The reason for this is that all the basic indicators one can use to predict the future are unknown. The world economy, government policy, consumer expectations, credit, interest rates, and many other key factors are in flux with no discernable direction or outcome.

Now uncertainty is not new to farmers, they face it every planting season. So when even farmers are uncertain about the future, then you know things are bad. Since we can not focus on the things we know, let’s look at the things we don’t know.

The grain markets have been an enigma to even the most seasoned trader all year long. The old rules of supply and demand just don’t work any more. Outside markets - primarily the oil market - have been a dominate influence on the farm markets for the past six months. This is likely to continue for much of 2009; although there are signs this influence is lessening.

My feeling is that sooner or later the fundamentals of supply and demand will eventually regain at least a modicum of influence in the market.

Farmers as they ponder planting are really experiencing Vu Jade. While we have all seen $3 corn before, we have not seen it along with $300-per-bag seed corn and $1,000-per-ton fertilizer. While there will be a crop planted this spring, the exact mix of acreage may not be known until May.

Energy prices have fallen by more than 70 percent since their high in July. So what does that mean for 2009? It means that prices could continue to fall or start to go up - how is that for a prediction? The one thing to keep in mind is that the energy market today is a demand driven not a supply driven market.

As the nations of the world begin to recover from this economic slowdown, their appetite for energy will increase. This indicates that energy prices are more likely to go up in 2009 than down.

The year 2009 will be the year the ethanol industry proves the skeptics wrong. Many have all but pronounced ethanol dead at the end of 2008.

Yet, with a pro-ethanol administration in power and the RFS in place, there will continue to be demand for ethanol. Growth in production of and demand for the renewable fuel will slow in 2009, but that is a good thing for a young industry that has just had a major growth spurt.

Last year I blew the prediction on the animal rights movement. I won’t make that mistake again. Buoyed from their ballot box win in California, it is likely they will try again in another state.
Some industry sources have told me that Ohio or Virginia could be the next state where HSUSA may try and push for a restrictions on livestock production.

So here we go into 2009, flying blind. It will be best to stay informed and keep our wits about us so we can make it through to 2010.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Gary Truitt may write to him in care of this publication.