By KEVIN WALKER
Michigan Correspondent
 
CHICAGO, Ill. — A new study commissioned by the Illinois Corn Growers Assoc. (ICGA) has found that an ethanol plant does not necessarily change land use in the area surrounding the new facility.

The study, conducted by Steffen Mueller, a researcher at the University of Illinois Energy Resources Center, uses an actual ethanol plant in Rochelle, Ill., as a test subject. He described his approach as “bottom up,” meaning his methodology was data-driven rather than model-driven.

The reason for the study, according to Mueller, is that in recent years some researchers have started to analyze the impact of ethanol on the environment in terms of indirect land use change (LUC).

He said these researchers use “global equilibrium models” to decide if a land use change in one part of the world is good, bad or indifferent for the environment.

“If you grow less soybeans, other countries grow more” and, in the process, might cut down more of their forests, Mueller said in describing indirect LUC analysis.

In indirect LUC analysis, the effect of a new ethanol plant in Illinois or Michigan could be judged by what somebody does with their land in Brazil, for example. By way of contrast, Mueller said he examined only what went on in the immediate vicinity of the Rochelle plant.

Data such as satellite images and farmer surveys were used in a period one year prior to the building of the plant to two years after its completion.

“Very, very little non-agricultural land in the vicinity of the ethanol plant got converted to corn,” Mueller stated.

During the study period, however, about 260,000 acres were converted from primarily soybeans to corn. According to the report, the ethanol plant in question needed about 20.5 million bushels of corn a year, yet corn production in the area studied rose by more than twice that amount.

While the ethanol plant “may have had a small influence on corn intensification, other variables (maybe economics, high export demand) seemed to drive corn intensification, the report states.
One explanation is that farmers were anticipating greater demand for corn because of the new plant, even if most of the increased demand never materialized; another is that they were responding in a more general way to rising corn prices. In any case, the study concludes that it was not demand from the plant for more corn that drove the conversion of the acreage.

The issue of land use change, the environment and ethanol facilities are all merging together today because California has drafted preliminary environmental rules that could slow or halt the growth of ethanol as an industry. It’s not a secret that this issue was going to come up, said Mark Lambert, a spokesman for the ICGA.

“A lot of work California does ends up working its way across the country,” Lambert said. “A lot of people are aware of how important ethanol is, but there’s also a lot of people out there with other agendas.”

He said language in proposed Illinois legislation would automatically adopt California’s standards regarding ethanol if they become law. He also took issue with indirect LUC analysis.

“There’s a lot of information that the model they’ve developed has incorrect assumptions,” he stated. “Their modeling is mistaken.”
But, Lambert said, those who developed these models are reluctant to modify them because they cost a lot of money to develop. David Loos, a technical advisor for the ICGA, echoed some of Lambert’s comments.

“What we’re just very nervous about, is California is using some very complex models that weren’t designed for indirect land use,” Loos said. He said the models California is relying upon were originally designed for import/export analysis.

“There are a lot of people taking a hard look at this issue,” Lambert added. “It has broad ramifications for a lot of industries, but agriculture is the guinea pig. Sometimes the guinea pig dies.”
When asked about the integrity of a study funded by a stakeholder group, Mueller said, “I can tell you that the corn growers were very hands-off. This study was not opened up for comments from the corn growers. Unless the money comes directly from the government, you’ve got privately funded studies. Researchers are used to that.”

The study, titled The Land Use Impact of a New Ethanol Plant, February 2009, is available to view or download in its entirety at www.ilcorn.org