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January pork export decline nearly 9 percent from 2008

Pork exports in January 2009 were down 8.7 percent from a year earlier. Pork imports were also down but by only 1.7 percent. Net pork exports as a percent of production declined from 13 percent in January 2008 to 12 percent in January 2009.

Our pork exports in January this year to Japan were up 20.9 percent, to Mexico up 62.8 percent, to Canada down 9.3 percent, to South Korea down 19.9 percent, to Russia down 75 percent, to mainland China down 90.1 percent, to Hong Kong down 17.8 percent, to Australia up 70 percent, to Taiwan up 74 percent and to other countries down 7.5 percent from 2008.

Live hog imports from Canada during January were down 41.6 percent from a year earlier. One of the reasons for the decline in live hog imports is due to their reduction in the hog herd. Another possible reason for the decline is the country of origin labeling or COOL.

Slaughter weights for barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week at a live weight of 268.7 pounds per head were up 0.2 pound from a week earlier and up for the third consecutive week. This was also up 1.1 pounds from a year earlier.

Retail pork prices in February were down 1.2 percent from January but up 4.8 percent from February 2008. For January and February, retail pork prices were up 4.9 percent. Everyone in the pork industry, but the packer benefitted from these higher retail prices. The processor-retail margin was up 7.4 percent for January and February from a year earlier. Live hog prices were up 5.5 percent for these two months compared to the same months in 2008. However, the packers’ margin for January and February was down 8.6 percent from 12 months earlier and the packers’ margin deteriorated further in March.

The packers’ margin improved some this week from early March but still not good. The cutout price per cwt. of carcass Thursday afternoon at $60.80 per cwt. was up $2.10 per cwt. from a week earlier. Loins at $74.34 per cwt. were down $0.02 per cwt., Boston butts at $61.93 per cwt. were down $2.19 per cwt., hams at $49.01 per cwt. were up $4.57 per cwt. and bellies at $81.78 per cwt. were up $5.13 per cwt. from seven days earlier.

Live hog prices Friday morning were $3.50-$6 per cwt. lower compared to Friday a week earlier. Weighted average negotiated carcass prices were $0.87-$3.22 per cwt. lower compared to seven days earlier.

The top live prices Friday morning for select markets were: Peoria $33.50 per cwt., Zumbrota, Minnesota, $34 per cwt. and interior Missouri $39.50 per cwt. The weighted average negotiated carcass prices by area were: western Corn Belt $55.17 per cwt., eastern Corn Belt $52.72 per cwt., Iowa-Minnesota $55.25 per cwt. and nation $53.55 per cwt.

The weighted average weaned pig price last week per head for 50-54 percent lean 10 pound basis was $37.31 per head. The weighted average 50-54 percent lean 40 pound basis feeder pig price last week was $62.33 per head. The top price per head for the 40 pound pigs in lots of 750-head-or-more was $65.50 per head.
If we tighten hog supplies in coming months as much from last year as indicated by the December Hogs and Pigs, we are likely to get a larger seasonal rally in price this year than normal. The average live price for barrows and gilts national basis in June was 23 percent higher on average than March for the last five years.
Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 2.155 million head, down 6.4 percent from a year earlier.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.

4/2/2009