By ANN HINCH
Assistant Editor

CHICAGO, Ill. — When surveyed during the first two weeks of March, American farmers indicated they intend to plant slightly more soybeans than last year, and approximately 1 million fewer acres of corn, or just under 85 million acres.

It may not be the striking news of 2007 and 2008, when first corn, then soybeans, dramatically surged in the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) annual Prospective Plantings reports. But, the NASS did note if successfully realized, the just-over 76 million acres of soybeans to be planted this year would be the most ever on record for the United States – even though that increase is only about 300,000 acres, 0.4 percent, over 2008.

Dan Basse of AgResource Co. of Chicago remarked the soybean futures market has been focused on anticipating a higher planting of new beans, with an eye toward decreases in expected Brazil and Argentina harvests. On top of this, the March NASS U.S. Grain Stocks report reflects existing soybean stocks of 1.3 billion bushels, down 9 percent from one year earlier and approximately 20 million below what analysts expected.

Don Roose of U.S. Commodities, Inc. of West Des Moines, Iowa, believes the South American shortfall has strengthened bids on buying old-crop soybeans.

“(But) when you look at all these numbers,” he said of the planting intentions report, “they’re just numbers – and we’re going to have to achieve those numbers.”

The consensus is that corn seedings will be down yet another year because of lower market prices and input costs that are, in NASS’ description, “unstable.” The new Grain Stocks report shows stocks of 6.96 billion bushels of corn, slightly up from a year ago but 80 million fewer than the market was expecting, according to Basse, probably because of higher livestock feeding.

This is still a positive number, he explained. Roose added that people were impressed at how the corn yield in 2008 rebounded from major flooding in the Midwest and late harvest, and so maybe aren’t as worried about the fate of this year’s crop. Besides, he said, there won’t be much change in corn planting through “the fat part of the Midwest.”

Indeed, Iowa and Illinois look set to remain the two largest planters of corn in the U.S., at 13.2 million and 12.2 million acres, respectively, in 2009. This is a very slight decrease for Iowa and just as slight an increase for Illinois from last year.

Indiana and Ohio intend to plant the same number of acres each did last year, 5.7 million and 3.3 million respectively, while Michigan and Tennessee are looking to each drop their numbers slightly, at 2.3 million and 670,000 acres. Kentucky intends to increase its acreage a little, to 1.23 million. None intend to plant as much as they did two years ago. Iowa and Illinois also intend to remain the number-one and -two planters of soybeans in 2009, at 9.85 million and 9.1 million acres, respectively; this reflects an increase of 100,000 acres for Iowa and just as much of a decrease for Illinois, from 2008.

Indiana and Tennessee are each going to drop their plantings slightly, to 5.4 million and 1.46 million, respectively, while Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio plan slight individual increases to 1.41 million, 1.95 million and 4.6 million acres. In contrast to corn planting, all seven states will be up on their soybean seedings from 2007.

Basse said the corn futures market may see heightened volatility over the next few weeks as traders focus on plantings and weather. There has been debate among analysts about whether corn will fall to $2.50 per bushel and beans to $6, but he doesn’t think so – under normal circumstances.

“It’s surprising to me that corn prices have held at $4 and beans, from $8 to $10,” he remarked, adding if recent conditions haven’t been enough to drive them lower, it would take some “monster” factor to make prices significantly alter over the next several months.

Wheat down in ’09
Basse noted total planted crops acreage in 2009 will be down 5.7 million acres from last year, a marked contrast to recent increases to take advantage of higher market prices. Much of this seems to come from less wheat to be planted this year – total wheat intentions are 58.6 million acres, down 7 percent from 2008 and even lower than wheat acres planted in 2007.

Wheat planting surged in 2008 on favorable market prices, but a rise in global stocks and a subsequent drop in prices may now be influencing farmers. The 2009 Grain Stocks report states wheat as of March 1 is at 1.04 billion bushels, up 46 percent over one year earlier. And even this was down 30 million bushels from what analysts expected, according to Basse, probably because of higher livestock feeding.

The Farm World states plant winter wheat and all are showing intentions to seed less than in 2008.

Farmers in four of those, however – Indiana with 470,000 acres, Kentucky with 530,000, Michigan with 600,000 and Ohio with 1.02 million – will be planting more than they did two years ago.
Two other crops should see a slight boost in this region. While cotton planting will be down yet again in 2009, Tennessee intends to seed more than it did last year, up to 310,000 acres from 285,000 – though these are still far fewer than the 515,000 acres it planted in 2007.

Also, oat planting will be up 33 percent over last year in Indiana and Iowa. Nationally the crop is seeing a 6 percent increase over last year in planting. Iowa is making the biggest jump of any state, from 150,000 acres last year to 200,000 this year, and Indiana is increasing from 15,000 to 20,000 acres (which is still not as many as the state planted in 2007).

While sorghum is enjoying a surge of interest overseas as feed, it is primarily grown west of the Mississippi. Illinois is the only local state the NASS recognizes to collect data upon, and it will be down by almost half in its planting from last year, to 50,000 acres. (Kentucky and Tennessee used to be accounted for, but recently fell off the NASS radar.)