By TIM THORNBERRY
Kentucky Correspondent

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — If all goes well during the harvest season, state corn and soybean producers are on course to produce record or near-record yields – but that is a mighty big “if.” As has been the case through most of he growing season, the weather is playing a significant role.

The latest estimates from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) Kentucky Field Office suggest that corn for grain is on track to produce an average of 157 bushels per acre, a new record. Total state production is forecast to be 177.4 million bushels, a whopping 16 percent increase over last year and 2 percent above the record set in 2004. The 2009 crop boasted an increase of 10,000 harvested acres above 2008, as well.

Nationally, corn is on a similar record-breaking schedule, with estimates of 164.2 bushels per acre, more than 10 bushels up from last year. Total U.S. corn production is expected to be 13 billion bushels, an 8 percent increase over 2008 and the second highest production level since the record 2007 crop.

Kentucky soybeans could enjoy the same success if estimates hold. The NASS report places total state production at 62 million bushels, a 3 percent increase over the 2006 record and an astounding 30 percent above the drought-stricken crop of 2008. Yield estimates could reach 44 bushels per acre, which would tie the 2004 and 2006 records.

“If realized, yield would be up two bushels from September and 9.5 bushels above 2008,” the report noted.

On a national level soybean production is estimated to be 3.25 billion bushels, a new record and a 10 percent increase over last year. Yields were expected to be 42.4 bushels per acre, which would be the third highest yield on record and 2.7 bushels ahead of 2008 figures, according to the NASS report.

Kentucky’s NASS executive director Leland Brown said confidence is high as far as crop production goes.

“There is a lot of optimism across the state right now,” he said. “Mother Nature has been favorable this year where in other years, she hasn’t been. Farmers have really been challenged over the last few years, and this has been their year to maybe do some catching up.”

But before producers take the good news to the bank, Brown warns there are some concerns related to the weather. The same Mother Nature that worked in favor of farmers during the summer is threatening to take some of that record yield back, as rain has kept producers out of the field at a crucial time.

The latest NASS crop report shows farmers are way behind in getting most crops in. “As of Sunday, Oct. 11, 46 percent of the corn acreage was reported harvested, well behind last year’s 75 percent and the five-year average of 81 percent,” the report noted.
While the soybean harvest is behind as well, the numbers aren’t at as wide a margin as corn, at this point. As of Oct. 11, 18 percent of the crop had been harvested, compared to 29 percent one year ago.

Chad Lee, grain specialist with the University of Kentucky (UK) College of Agriculture, said weather will certainly be the deciding factor as to whether those projected record yields hold true.
“We are on track for a record harvest, if we can get it out of the field,” he said. “Our biggest concern right now is molds and sprouting on the plant. If we get into this poor-quality situation, then that means farmers are going to get docked for high-moisture corn, for damaged kernels and moldy or sprouted kernels. Right now the weather is very conducive to those things.”

Lee added the spring rains, which kept many producers out of their fields, had farmers worried that this year might not be so good. Now, not-so-timely rain could again cause more worries and negatively affect crop yields.

“Early on we were late in planting to begin with, which had everyone concerned of having a poor year, but we had very timely rain all through the growing season over most of the state,” he said. “However, if the weather stays like this, we may not be able to get it all in.”

Lee added the best thing that could happen now would be an extended dry, warm period. “We need an Indian Summer. Really at this point, it would be nice to have a 14-day period with no rain and temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s; that’s what we need,” he said.

Lee also said if there ever was a year to have on-farm storage and drying capabilities, it would be this year.

This week is supposed to be warmer and dryer according to forecast from the UK Agricultural Weather Center, something that can’t come soon enough for producers looking to keep their projected record harvest intact.