Nov. 2-8, 2009
In the course of each of the four seasons, inevitably, if the good weather continues for a period of time, rain, wind or snow follow. One must always think of the changes in heaven and earth. In the same way, one must be prepared for changes in the mind of a person ...
-Miyamoto Musashi
The astronomical outlook The Buzzard Migration Moon, becoming completely full on Nov. 2 at 2:14 p.m., wanes throughout the period, entering its final quarter at 10:56 a.m. on Nov. 9.
Summer’s Hercules is setting in the west by 10 p.m., and the Great Square of Late Autumn is moving in behind it. Cassiopeia lies due south of Polaris, its deepest intrusion overhead. Aldebaran leads Orion higher each night. Procyon of Canis Major is just emerging from the east; watch for it at midnight.
The night grows 15 minutes longer this week, sunrise time moving to about a quarter past seven, and sunset around half past five. By Nov. 7, the sun will be approximately 70 percent of the way to winter solstice.
November weather Weather history suggests that cold waves usually reach our region on or about Nov. 2, 6, 11, 16, 20, 24 and 28. Snow or rain often occurs prior to the passage of each major front. If strong storms occur this month, weather patterns suggest that they will happen during the following periods: Nov. 2-5, 14-16 and 22-27.
Full moon on Nov. 2 and new moon on Nov. 16 increase the likelihood of a late hurricane coming ashore along the East Coast or a powerful, snow-bearing cold wave moving across the Plains.
Average high temperatures continue their decline through the week, dropping into the lower 50s north of Indianapolis and Columbus, and into the upper 50s along the Kentucky border. Nighttime lows are in the 30s throughout the area.
Looking ahead, expect November’s temperatures to keep falling one degree every 50 hours. With averages plummeting a total of 14 degrees in the next 30 days, expect up to 15 mornings with frost.
Almanac daybook Nov. 2: Ninety percent of the winter wheat has been planted, and most of it has sprouted by now. Many fields have been plowed for spring. Sugar beets are typically more than three-quarters dug, and the pumpkin harvest continues.
Soil temperatures soon fall into the 40s, the point at which mulch should be placed around the bases of plants and bushes.
Nov. 3: Use lower-grade supplements for your livestock early in November, gradually increasing nutrient value and quantity throughout the winter. Save your best quality feed supplies for the colder months and the months closest to kidding and lambing time.
And don’t limit your nutritional planning to just your animals. Give yourself and your family the best “feed” as the weather becomes more demanding.
Nov. 4: In the fields and woods, the last autumn violets are still blooming beside a few chicory, Queen Anne’s lace, thyme-leafed speedwell, mallow, the final asters and one or two stalks of goldenrod. Wild geraniums, thistles and cinquefoil can be growing back. Sometimes a parsnip is ready to bloom.
Garlic mustard, sweet Cicely, Virginia creeper, burdock, red clover, waterleaf, ground ivy, celandine, sweet rocket, dock and leafcup have also revived, looking ahead six months to spring.
Nov. 5: This is the pivotal day for autumn cloud cover to intensify in the region. A lack of sun means slow drying for wet hay and increased likelihood for mold in feed supplies. Clouds also mean the first major attacks of seasonal affective disorders in humans.
Nov. 6: Late fall, a transition period of chilly temperatures, gray skies and killing frosts, typically arrives by today. Witch hazels bloom, marking the shift of the season. Indoors, mature aloe plants often send up flower spikes indoors. Ginkgo, magnolia and white mulberry leaves can fall within a few hours.
Nov. 7: As most of the leaves fall, the countdown for April gets underway. There will be about 50 days of rain or snow between now and the first daffodils. Something else to count is the number cloudy days; there are rarely more than 75 or fewer than 60. And there are usually 27 totally clear days (with a nine-day margin for error) between the final goldenrod and the first hepatica.
Another way to gauge the progress of winter is to count major cold fronts. There should be 30 in all, 20 of which will coincide with changes in the phase of the moon.
Nov. 8: The first rutting period for whitetail deer begins in the first week of November in the northern tier of states, and about a week to 10 days later in the central states. The length of the rut is about 14 days.
The secondary rutting period starts about Nov. 25 in the North, and about Dec. 3 in the South. By the end of the secondary rut, many bucks have lost their early autumn sleekness and have begun to lose weight.
Mind and body clock November is the first month since March that the S.A.D. (seasonal affective disorder) Index readings consistently indicate a high likelihood of the occurrence of depression, irritability and anxiety in many people.
The average length of November’s night is almost as great as the night’s length in December and January; the weather becomes more severe, and clouds thicken. All those factors equal S.A.D., and the Index rises throughout the period, climbing from 43 to 53 (on a scale of one to 75) by Nov. 10.
Fish, game, livestock and diet The moon is overhead between midnight and dawn this week, making that time the best for fishing and snacking. Hunting and feeding livestock and children might be done at the second-best lunar time, when the moon is below this part of the earth – in the early to mid-afternoon. Hunger should increase in all creatures at the approach of the Nov. 6 and 11 cold fronts.
Winter forecast A reader asked me if this summer’s cool July and August meant we were going to have a cold winter. I checked the statistics, and here is what I found:
The cool Julys and Augusts of 1984, 1947, 1927, 1915 and 1891 were followed by two very cold winters (in 1985 and 1948), two average winters (in 1928 and 1891) and one warm winter (in 1916). Based on the long view of history, therefore, it appears that there is a slightly better chance of a good winter rather than a bad one this year.
And, looking at recent weather history (the past 10 years or so), I have concluded that this fall and winter will be average to above average in terms of temperature, and maybe a little above average in terms of precipitation.
November 2008 was the chilliest since 2002, and since cold Novembers rarely occur back-to-back, expect the month ahead to be a little warmer. Although last year’s December was not severe, it too was a little below average, making the odds for a relatively mild final month better than usual.
January 2009 was almost 5.5 degrees below normal; since cold Januarys usually do not occur two years in a row, expect at least an average beginning of 2010, if not a relatively mild one. As for February, last year’s warm conditions could well repeat themselves, since really chilly Februarys are becoming less frequent.
Snow in the winter of 2008-09 was close to average in most of the area, although January brought over a foot of frozen precipitation to much of the lower Midwest. That amount of January snowfall is a once-in-a-decade phenomenon, so it is not likely to be repeated this year. Odds for a February blizzard are low.
On the other hand, December is overdue for heavier-than-normal precipitation. |
