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Demand for pork, turkey remains strongest in ’09

Demand at the consumer level is mixed for meats this year. Pork and turkey is up with pork up 2.6 percent and turkey up 3.6 percent for January-October compared to a year earlier. Beef demand at the consumer level is down 2.8 percent and broiler demand is down 3.4 percent for these ten months compared to 2008.

Both live hogs and live fed cattle demand for January-October is down. Live-fed cattle demand is down 8.2 percent and live hog demand is down five percent.

Smaller pork exports are the major reason why live hog demand is down and pork demand is up at the consumer level. For fed cattle both exports and hotel and restaurant trade for beef are down.
It appears Russia is playing politics with trade. In mid-week Russia barred import from several U.S. packing plants. How much impact this will have on hog prices is not known, but probably not very much. For January-September Russia’s pork imports from the U.S. amounted to 7.8 percent of our exports or 1.4 percent of our pork production. Hopefully Russia will continue to import at the January-September rate from pork plants in the U.S. that are not barred from exporting to Russia.

Wholesale ham prices early this week were the highest priced pork wholesale cut. It has been a long time since that was the situation. The strong ham prices are due we believe to export and Christmas demand for hams. The demand for Christmas hams tends to disappear rather rapidly around the 10th of December.

Pork cutout this Thursday afternoon at $68.12 per cwt. was up $4.70 per cwt. from a week earlier. Loins at $77.20 per cwt. were up $8.98 per cwt., Boston butts at $69.39 per cwt. were up $5.97 per cwt., hams at $73.75 per cwt. were up $6.42 per cwt., bellies at $71.54 per cwt. were up $3.44 per cwt. from seven days earlier.
Slaughter weights continue to get closer to a year earlier. For last week barrow and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota at 269.9 pounds up 0.4 pounds from a week earlier and up only 0.6 pounds from a year earlier. This 0.6 difference is the closest weights in Iowa-Minnesota have been to a year earlier since the week ending Jan. 31, 2009.
Live barrow and gilt prices Friday morning were steady to $2 per cwt. higher compared to a week earlier. The weighted average negotiated carcass prices Friday morning were $2.51-2.76 per cwt. higher compared to seven days earlier.

The top live prices Friday morning were: Peoria $36 per cwt., Zumbrota, Minnesota, $39 per cwt. and interior Missouri $41.50 per cwt.

The weighted average negotiated carcass price of areas were: western Corn Belt $62.98 per cwt., eastern Corn Belt $59.32 per cwt., Iowa-Minnesota $62.97 per cwt., and nation $60.73 per cwt.
Feeder pig prices naturally last week were $3-$4 per head higher than a week earlier. Pigs weighing 10 pounds averaged $39.83 per head. Formula priced 10 pound pigs averaged $37.85 per head and negotiated 10 pound pigs averaged $41.09 per head. Pigs weighing 40 pounds averaged $44.31 per head, formula priced 40 pound pigs sold for $55.01 per head and spot or negotiated pigs sold for $43.14 per head.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 2.213 million head down 5.3 percent from 12 months earlier.

Readers with questions or comments for Glenn Grimes or Ron Plain may write to them in care of this publication.

12/16/2009