I am a fan of science fiction literature. From an early age, I have read SciFi short stories and novels, and watched a lot of SciFi movies. A theory in many science fiction stories, and in quantum physics, is that there are parallel dimensions where different outcomes occur. Using this theory, there would be a separate reality very much like ours where the Indianapolis Colts did not pull their quarterback in the second half of the game against the New York Giants, and thus won the game. Countless stories use this as a backdrop and have their characters move between these different worlds. This is what awaits American agriculture as we begin a new year. There are several different scenarios that will play out this year and decisions that are made will determine in which reality we will live.

The climate change legislation now before Congress will be the first crossroad which will determine the future of American agriculture.
Unless changes are made, the legislation will increase energy costs, reduce crop acreage, and increase forestland, as well as encumber farmers with draconian government regulations. In addition, some of U.S. agriculture’s strongest competitors will have an advantage since they will not have to comply with world climate change regulations. How agriculture is treated in the climate change bill will determine, in large part, the kind of future farm families will face.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will also be a major player in 2010. This government agency has already made it clear that, if Congress does not legislate the kind of laws they feel should be implemented, then they will regulate the outcome. This agency, which is not elected or accountable to the American people, will make decisions about the air we breathe, the water we drink, and the land we farm. The decisions they make this year will determine if farmers can continue to farm the way they have or if food, fiber, and fuel production will have to be reinvented.

Another issue that could send America’s food production system spinning off into one of those alternate realities is the issue of food safety. A coalition of consumer and anti-agriculture groups has pushed a variety of food safety bills in Congress. The media, always hungry for a good panic story, has been more than willing to jump on the bandwagon. Bills requiring “humane” slaughter, banning antibiotics, and demanding other labeling and processing requirements have all been introduced in 2009 and are likely to be back again in 2010. A number of energy-related decisions will likely be made in 2010. The EPA has promised a ruling on the ethanol industry’s request to increase, from 10 percent to 15 percent, the amount of ethanol that is blended into the nation’s gasoline supply. Despite the EPA’s bias against ethanol, I predict they will decide to make E-15 the standard. The biodiesel tax credit that was allowed to expire at the end of 2009 will most likely be reinstated retroactively in 2010.

Chocolate milk and chickens are on my watch list for 2010. My favorite dairy product, chocolate milk, was vilified in 2009, and that PR smear campaign will continue in 2010. Chickens also found themselves under attack last year. Chicken processors, chicken retailers, and even the right to have chickens in your backyard were all challenged in ’09. I see this continuing in the new year.

On the state level, several old friends will be with us again in the new year. Efforts to ban, regulate, or zone livestock feeding operations will be issues before state lawmakers as well as county commissioners. It is unlikely state lawmakers will act on such legislation; but only if producers get involved on the local level will we be successful on the county level.

HSUS became a major political force in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana in 2009. Despite defeats in Ohio and Indiana, they are not going away.

Missouri will be the focus of efforts to regulate animal agriculture, but don’t think these well-organized and funded radicals will not be hard at work in other states. Animal agriculture will continue to find itself in the crosshairs on both the local, state and national level.
In the too close to call category is the property tax caps implemented by the Indiana state lawmakers last year. The question now is: will they make them permanent by making them part of the state constitution? Politically, this has the support of most lawmakers, but recent developments may be eroding support. This is an issue that farmers will have to fight hard for if they want more equitable treatment by the state’s tax laws.

One final issue that burst onto the scene in ’09 (and I hope will stick around for 2010) is a unification of efforts by ag organizations to educate consumers about our industry. Several major programs and projects are planned for 2010 in Indiana, and I hope the success and momentum will continue all year long. The only way we can keep from being shunted off into one of those nightmarish alternate realities is to educate and organize. The very future of agriculture as we know it is at stake.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Gary Truitt may write to him in care of this publication.