The available data continues to support strong consumer demand for pork. For January-November, consumer demand for pork was up 3.1 percent, for beef down 2.7 percent, for broilers down 3.2 percent and for turkey up 4.5 percent.

Demand for live hogs for January-November was down 4.4 percent and for live-fed cattle down 7.8 percent. The weaker live animal demand than consumer demand is believed to be due mostly to lower exports for the hog industry, and lower exports and a weak hotel and restaurant trade for the beef industry.

The trade estimate for the total hog inventory on December 1 showed a decline of 2.4 percent. The breeding herd was down 3.4 percent and the market herd was down 2.3 percent. A breeding herd down 3.4 percent from 2008 would mean producers reduced the herd some from September of 2009.

Feeder pig prices at United Tel-O-Auction this week were $5-$15 per cwt. above two weeks earlier. The prices by weight groups were: 50-60 pounds $85-$96 per cwt. and 60-70 pounds $88 per cwt. The futures prices for lean hogs next year have been very supportive for feeder pigs in recent weeks.

Pork product prices were pushed some lower this week with the cutout at $67.32 per cwt., down $0.54 per cwt. from Wednesday a week earlier. Loins at $88.74 per cwt. were down $1.77 per cwt., Boston butts at $61.64 per cwt. were up $1.04 per cwt., hams at $54.91 per cwt. were down $1.58 per cwt. and bellies at $77.73 were up $2.13 per cwt. from seven days earlier.
Live hog prices Thursday morning were $0.50 per cwt. lower to $1 per cwt. higher compared to a week earlier.

Weighted average negotiated carcass prices Thursday morning were $0.03 per cwt. lower to $4.72 per cwt. higher compared to seven days earlier.

The top live prices for select markets Thursday morning were: Peoria $38 per cwt., Zumbrota, Minn., was not available and interior Missouri $43.25 per cwt.

The weighted average negotiated carcass prices Thursday morning by area were: western Corn Belt $63.23 per cwt., eastern Corn Belt $58.81 per cwt., Iowa-Minnesota $63.70 per cwt. and nation $60.85 per cwt. The Hogs and Pigs report for December came in relatively close to trade expectations. The total herd at down 1.8 percent was the biggest difference; the trade estimate was for the total herd to be down 2.4 percent. The breeding herd was down 3.5 percent; the trade estimate was for a 3.4 percent decline. The market herd was down 2.0 percent; the trade estimate was for a 2.3 percent decline.
We expect the Iowa-Minnesota base carcass price to be $60 or a little more in the first quarter and in the upper $60’s to abut $70 in the second quarter.

More detail on the report can be found in the quarterly summary report of the Hogs and Pigs report on the AgEBB website at http://agebb.missouri.edu/mkt/

Hog slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 1.678 million head, up 3.5 percent from a year earlier.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Glenn Grimes or Ron Plain may write to them in care of this publication.