The big news this week was USDA’s Jan. 12 crop report. USDA increased their estimate of corn acres planted in 2009 by 100,000, raised harvested acres by 300,000 and increased average yield by 2.3 bushels per acre. The result was a record yield of 165.2 bushels per acre and the largest corn crop ever at 13.151 billion bushels. USDA reduced their estimate of harvested soybean acreage in 2009 by 200,000 acres but increased their estimate of per acre yield by 0.7 bushel to a record 44.0 bushels per acre.

Total soybean production in 2009 was a record 3.361 billion bushels. All corn futures contracts through September 2011 closed down the 30 cent limit on Tuesday. The March corn futures contract ended the week at $3.715 per bushel, 51 cents lower than it started.

March soybeans ended the week at $9.74, 48 cents lower than the previous Friday. If corn averages $3.75 per bushel in 2010, the breakeven price for hogs should be close to $52 per cwt. live.
Pork exports during November totaled 383.2 million pounds, 11.3 percent more than 12 months earlier and the largest monthly total since October 2008.

Although 2009 pork exports were down compared to 2008, last year was easily the second best year ever for U.S. pork exports. U.S. pork exports in 2010 are expected to be back close to the 2008 record.

Last week’s cold and snow left us expecting a big hog kill this week and lower prices. That did not happen. Hog prices moved higher. This week’s hog slaughter is estimated to be 2.176 million head, down 5.8 percent compared to the same week in 2009.

USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $73.05 per cwt., up $2.73 from the previous Thursday. Hams, loins, bellies, and Boston butts were all higher. At this time last year, the pork cutout was $56.26 per cwt.

The top price Friday at Sioux Falls was $44 per cwt. Peoria had a top of $41 per cwt. and Zumbrota, Minn. topped at $40. The interior Missouri top Friday was $46 per cwt., unchanged for the week.
The plant delivered price took a big jump at the end of the week with the national weighted average carcass price Friday morning for negotiated hogs at $67.63 per cwt., $3.26 higher than the previous Friday and $11.87 per cwt. higher than a year ago. Regional average prices on Friday morning were: eastern Corn Belt $66.31, western Corn Belt $69.60, and Iowa-Minnesota $69.88 per cwt.
Today’s hog prices are roughly breakeven for the average producer. There have only been a few brief periods in the last nine quarters when hogs were sold at a profit. For hog prices to reach this level in January is truly an encouraging sign.

The average carcass weight of barrows and gilts slaughtered the week ending Jan. 2 was 200 pounds, 2 pounds lighter than for the same week last year. Iowa-Minnesota live weights last week averaged 269 pounds, down 1.6 pounds compared to last year.
The February lean hog futures contract ended the week at $69.97 per cwt., up $2.72 from last Friday. The April contract settled at $73.27 today, up $1.85 for the week. May closed the week at $76.97 per cwt. and June closed at $80.85 per cwt.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Glenn Grimes or Ron Plain may write to them in care of this publication.