WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — A high percentage of Indiana and Illinois counties are abnormally dry, according to experts, with the worst conditions in southern Illinois and southwestern Indiana. An updated drought map last Thursday showed worsening dry conditions, according to Jim Mintert, Purdue University assistant director of Extension, Agriculture and Natural Resources. Extreme southwestern Indiana and a band of counties north and east of that were the most severe in the Hoosier State, he said.

In Illinois, the June 5 Palmer Drought Index showed severe drought conditions in the extreme south of the state, improving to moderate in the central and west-central parts of the state, to little drought showing up in northeastern Illinois.

Purdue extension specialists on campus and educators throughout the state participated in a conference call last Friday, sharing their observations on the emerging drought. The take-home message for farmers seemed to be: It’s not a disaster yet, but be prepared.

“The drought is coming from the West and South into our region,” said State Climatologist Dev Niyogi. “Our weather is going to have to have moisture from the Gulf region.”

In all likelihood the drought conditions will continue to spread east, he said, because Gulf storms currently are not strong. “We’re just not getting much support from the Gulf of Mexico,” added Associate State Climatologist Ken Scheeringa. “That’s our big weather maker. If we don’t get moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it limits rain here.”

Fronts that have come through, he said, haven’t contained much rain because humidity is low and the moisture evaporates. On a positive note, though, the low humidity has prohibited some disease problems.

“The jet stream now is parallel to the U.S.-Canadian border,” Scheeringa said. “We have to hope storms developing in the Northwest dip down into Indiana.”

He said the best chance for precipitation that’s on the horizon is a storm system that should arrive Friday.

“A key point is that we’re going to have a highly variable rainfall pattern,” Niyogi said. “Some places will get rain; others won’t get an adequate amount of rainfall. There’s nothing in the system right now that looks like change. Unless the Friday storm develops, we’re in for a long haul.”

In the meantime, temperatures are expected to be above normal, according to the climatologists. That could tip the scales unfavorably for some crops (see related article on page 8).

Purdue extension weed specialist Bill Johnson said farmers are seeing a few weed problems this year. “Probably the two most pertinent issues that cropped up this past week are difficulty controlling lambsquarters and marestail,” he said, adding that once the two weeds reach a certain size, they’re impossible to kill.

He encouraged growers to use the maximum amount of herbicide they can and to use an adjutant if one is indicated in dry conditions. He also suggested they treat volunteer corn with their first post-emergence treatment in soybeans. “I expect, as we move later into summer, we’ll have documented glyphosate-resistant waterhemp,” he said, adding farmers should go ahead and treat as if it’s resistant. He suggested using Cobra or Flexstar with glyphosate to control waterhemp.

Growers planning to double-crop into wheat fields should hold off a while, according to Purdue extension forage specialist Keith Johnson.

“It’s still a couple weeks early on a normal double-crop schedule,” he said. “Assess the soil moisture when you’re cutting wheat if you want to double-crop. If it’s going into bone-dry soil, the seed will sit there.”

If the soil has just a little bit of moisture for seed to imbibe, germination and yield potential will decrease, he said.

Prices

This year’s growing season may not be a disaster if prices compensate, according to Purdue ag economist Chris Hurt. With low yields come higher prices, he said, so prices will be pushed higher once losses are obvious.

“We actually get higher revenues in low-production years,” he said.

“In (19)93, yield was down 10 percent and revenues were up 20 percent.”

With so many variables and unknowns, the specialists said decision-making will be difficult for growers this season. But, they said, they’ll continue regular updates and remain available for questions. “Extension can’t make it rain, but we can talk to people about what they can do,” Hurt pointed out.