WASHINGTON, D.C. — The United States is on pace for record corn and soybean production this year, according to the latest numbers from the USDA.
Corn production is projected to be 14.4 billion bushels, based on conditions as of Sept. 1. That number is up 3 percent from the August forecast and from 2013, the agency said last week. Soybean production is also expected to be up 3 percent from the August estimate, to a record 3.91 billion bushels; that would be a 19 percent increase over last year.
The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its most recent Crop Production report Sept. 11. If conditions hold, corn yields are expected to average 171.7 bushels per acre, up 4.3 from its August report and 12.9 bushels more than in 2013. The 2014 corn crop would represent the highest yield and production on record for the country, NASS said.
Harvested corn for grain is forecasted to be 83.8 million acres, unchanged from August but down 4 percent from 2013.
For soybeans, average yields are projected to be a record high 46.6 bushels per acre, up 1.2 from August and 3.3 from last year. Harvested acreage is expected to be a record 84.1 million, unchanged from August but up 11 percent from 2013.
The corn production numbers were at the high end of average pre-report trade estimates, said Jack Scoville, futures market analyst with Price Futures Group. The soybean figures were also a little higher than expected. "The talk had been that USDA might be conservative in its estimates and come in a bit lower," he said. "The point is, these are just big crops."
The USDA’s corn yield numbers were above average trade expectations of 170.7 bushels but below the pre-report estimate of 174.1 from INTL FCStone, said Kyle Schrad, a risk management consultant with the company.
"I think that 174 to 175 is probably more a proper reflection of where the market believes this crop will be toward the end of this year – potentially even above that," he explained. "Corn condition ratings released earlier (last) week are the highest since 1992, so you’re really seeing some positive signs there in terms of what the yield expectation is.
"The USDA has been very conservative in terms of upping that yield until we really get later in the year. They typically make the big adjustments in the October report, and then moving forward into the January reports."
The markets may be looking past the September report and to those in October and November, plus also to information on the soon-to-be planted soybean crop in South America, said Bill Tierney, chief economist with AgResource Co.
"Over the last 10 years or so, I think it’s more important to the market what the South American crop is going to be," Tierney stated.
"Today, the majority of the soybeans and soy meal that’s exported in the world comes from South America. The South American crop, particularly Brazil and Argentina, is significantly larger than even this record U.S. crop that’s expected.
"We’re not going to start planting the Brazilian crop until next week. So the larger crop – the one that’s more important to the world market – hasn’t even been planted yet."