WASHINGTON, D.C. — Households in all regions of the country can expect to pay lower heating bills this winter, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Oct. 7 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Adam Sieminski, EIA administrator, said the latest report includes EIA’s forecast for winter heating fuel demand and household heating expenditures this winter, which he added would be decreased “because temperatures are forecast to be warmer than last winter, and that means less demand for heat.”

The U.S. propane market “starts this winter in better shape than last winter,” he said, with Midwest propane inventories toward the end of September about 15 percent higher than at the same time last year.

“Retailers in several Midwest states also report many customers are filling their propane tanks early,” he said. “Midwest households that paid extremely high prices for propane last winter will see the biggest drop in their heating bills, which on average should be almost $800 less for the season.”

Harold Hommes, executive officer of the agricultural marketing program at the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship (IDALS), said, “We are indeed well ahead of (propane) inventories (even the Midwest) for this point in time relative to last year.”

In the EIA’s Aug. 13 “This Week in Petroleum” report, the large drawdown in stocks last winter increased U.S. propane inventories, with total weekly supplies topping 70 million barrels for the first time since Dec. 7, 2012. Because weather patterns present great uncertainty to winter energy forecasts, EIA’s winter fuels outlook includes projections for 10 percent colder and 10 percent warmer scenarios.

“Assuming 10 percent colder weather, heating expenditures would be expected to average 6 percent higher than last year for households heating with natural gas and 2 percent higher for those using electricity,” it stated.

The Oct. 7 report said “after the unusually cold winter of 2013-14, U.S. households can expect lower heating expenditures this winter (October through March), compared to last winter, with average household expenditures for homes heating primarily with natural gas totaling $649 this winter, a $31 decline from last winter’s average.

“Homes heating primarily with electric heat are expected to spend $938 ($17 less). Homes using propane or heating oil have higher expenditures on average ($1,724 and $1,992, respectively) than homes using natural gas and electricity, but still lower ($652 less and $362 less, respectively), compared to last year.”

Moreover, Sieminski said U.S. natural gas inventories have recovered from the big drawdown last winter and are expected to exceed 3.5 trillion cubic feet at the start of this year’s heating season.

“Rising domestic natural gas production this year, along with a mild summer that resulted in less electricity generation to meet air conditioning demand, contributed to the record build in natural gas inventories,” he explained.

“Even if this winter is as cold as last year’s, the net withdrawal from natural gas inventories over the heating season would not be as large as last winter’s drawdown because domestic gas production this winter is expected to be significantly higher than it was last winter.”

In addition, U.S. heating oil prices are expected to be lower this winter because crude oil prices are lower, Sieminski said.

While electricity prices are expected to be higher this winter, he said households that rely on electric heat will also see lower electric bills compared to last winter “because temperatures are forecast to be warmer, and that will result in less heating demand.”