By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook 

The November WASDE lowered USDA’s forecast of 2014 pork production by 97 million pounds (0.4 percent) and lowered its production forecast for next year by 305 million pounds (1.3 percent). They now predict 2014 pork production will be down 2.3 percent from last year to the lowest level since 2010.

USDA’s forecast for live hog prices in 2014 is for an average somewhere around $76.60 per cwt., which is far above the record of $66.12 per cwt. set in 2011. They are predicting 4.2 percent more pork in 2015 than this year, with an average live hog price of $65.50 per cwt.

Total red meat and poultry production is forecast to be 1.6 percent higher in 2015 than this year.

USDA lowered the forecast of 2014 corn production by 68 million bushels and raised the forecast of the seasonal average corn price by 10 cents to between $3.20 and $3.80 per bushel. They left the midpoint of their soybean price forecast unchanged at $10 per bushel.

The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report Nov. 14 was $84.10 per cwt., up 76 cents from the previous Friday and up $5.25 from a year ago. There were no Western Corn Belt or Iowa-Minnesota reported negotiated prices on Nov. 14. The Eastern Corn Belt averaged $84.06 per cwt. on the Nov. 14 morning report.

Peoria had a top live price Nov. 14 of $58 per cwt. The top price for interior Missouri live hogs was $60.75 per cwt., which was the same as the previous Friday.

After four weeks of decline, the Nov. 14 morning pork cutout value was $96.58 per cwt. FOB the plants, up $2.72 from the week before and up $3.24 from a year ago. Compared to a year ago, loins are up by $5.54 per cwt., hams are up $9.23 per cwt., but bellies are $32.44 per cwt. lower. Ham prices are within a dollar of both loins and bellies.

The Nov. 14 morning hog carcass price averaged 87.1 percent of the cutout value. Hog slaughter last week totaled 2.219 million head, down 0.6 percent from the week before and down 5.4 percent compared to the same week last year. This was the 38th consecutive week with hog slaughter below the year-earlier level.

The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week, 285.7 pounds, was up 0.5 pounds from a week earlier and up 4.9 pounds from a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota weights have been above year ago for 84 consecutive weeks.

The December lean hog futures contract closed at $92.67 per cwt., up $3.90 for the week. February hog futures ended last week at $92.75 per cwt., up $4.33 from the week before. April hogs gained $3.75 last week to close at $93.85 per cwt. The May contract ended last week at $94 per cwt. June closed at $97.47 per cwt.

Corn futures were higher last week. The December contract gained 14 cents this week to end at $3.8175 per bushel. March corn settled at $3.9425 per bushel.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to them in care of this publication.