LOUISVILLE, Ky. — For the past few years, the much anticipated agricultural outlook session during the Kentucky Farm Bureau Annual Meeting has brought news of record cash farm receipts. This year was no different – ag economists from the University of Kentucky College of Agriculture, Food and Environment announced 2014 receipts could hit a new record of $6 billion.

That news came with a caveat: UK’s Will Snell said for this year the news is mostly good even with a decline in most crop prices, but 2015 will come with many concerns.

“These higher receipts, coupled with the last year of tobacco buyout payments and a relatively large percentage of the 2013 corn crop being sold this year, will enable Kentucky net cash income to remain relatively strong in 2014,” he said. “Our biggest concern is what is looming in 2015 when buyout payments have ended and a much lower-priced grain crop is marketed.”

He noted Kentucky will benefit from its diversity within the agriculture industry, something that should insulate the state from declines that will come at the national level. The projection for 2015 is that cash receipts will drop by 5 percent from the expected 2014 record. Still, that would amount to $5.7 billion.

While farm cash receipts remain high, money in the pockets of farmers will be less, according to information from the USDA. The agency predicts net farm income nationally will fall by 21 percent in 2014; that is coming off a previous year that saw the highest net farm income level since 1973.

Kentucky’s net farm income, however, is expected to still be a strong number, said Snell. “We feel, on a calendar year basis, net cash income is still going to be relatively strong with higher cash receipts plus the fact we have those tobacco buyout payments,” he said.

But next year could see these figures drop 10-15 percent to levels not seen since 2009 and 2010, added Snell.

The livestock sector has been huge in keeping Kentucky’s ag industry strong. Cash receipts are expected to be $3.2 billion in 2014, up 15 percent from 2013, and $3.3 billion in 2015. Poultry is expected to remain on top, followed by cattle and horses.

Revenue from livestock has seen increases over the last three years, while crop revenues are on the decline. In fact, corn prices alone have dropped more than 50 percent since the $8 boon in 2012.

Soybeans top the crop cash receipt list, followed by corn and tobacco. Crop receipts are expected to reach $2.8 billion in 2014, down slightly from 2013 levels with another decline expected in 2015.

Kentucky’s horticulture industry continues to increase. In 2014, the expected cash receipts are predicted to reach their highest levels, at $132.5 million. Most of those sales come from auction markets and direct market sales.

The state’s forestry business has also realized an increase in revenue. The direct economic impact of the industry is estimated to be $8.3 billion, an increase of 5 percent from 2013.

These farm cash receipt numbers, still predictions at this point, are generally very close to actual figures, but those final numbers won’t be available until later in 2015.

The Kentucky Department of Agriculture recently announced the final tally for the 2013 season, with total cash farm receipts setting a new record at $5.67 billion. That represents an increase of 16.8 percent over the total of $4.86 billion for 2012, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Snell said while a decline in overall farm cash receipts may be on the way, the drop will likely not be as significant as other states will experience, because of Kentucky’s investment of tobacco settlement funds into the ag sector helping to create a more diversified farm economy.

A copy of the outlook publication including information on individual farm sectors can be found at www2.ca.uky.edu/cmspubsclass/files/Outlook2015 .pdf