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March hog numbers show industry is recovering from PEDv losses
 


By DOUG SCHMITZ
Iowa Correspondent

DES MOINES, Iowa — U.S. hog numbers for the three-month period ending Feb. 28 were up 7.2 percent from a year earlier in the wake of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv), which wiped out millions of swine – mostly piglets – last year, according to industry experts analyzing the USDA’s March 1 Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report.
“This is very encouraging, from a production standpoint,” Chris Hurt, Purdue University professor of agricultural economics, said in a March 27 teleconference with reporters. “Things are pretty close to our expectations as to where we would have been if there had been no impact from PEDv.”
Hurt was joined by Robert Brown, an independent market analyst in Edmond, Okla., and Dan Vaught, senior livestock economist at Doane Advisory Services in St. Louis, Mo., in analyzing the report. 
Sponsored by the National Pork Board and funded by the Pork Checkoff in Des Moines, the report said as of March 1 there were 65.9 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms, up 7 percent from March 2014, but down slightly from Dec. 1, 2014; however, analysts said they were in line with 2013’s pre-PEDv numbers.
The report stated the December 2014-February 2015 pig crop, at 28.8 million head, was up 9 percent from 2014. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.83 million head, up 2 percent from 2014, which Steve Meyer, president of Paragon Economics in Des Moines, said is “precisely the number predicted by analysts.” 
In addition, sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd, with the average pigs saved per litter posting a record high 10.17 for the December-February period, compared to 9.53 last year. 
Moreover, pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.9 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.2 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs, the report read.
The report also said the U.S. breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was up 2 percent from last year, and up 1 percent from the previous quarter.
“The theme this winter has been, ‘Where did all the pigs come from?’ ” Hurt said. “There was more expansion going on than the USDA picked up in the December report, but a little less than anticipated.”
Moreover, Hurt said litter numbers were “closer to expectations, with no PEDv influence at all.”
“The impact of PEDv was relatively small this winter,” he said. “That we took on this disease and reduced its impact says a lot for the industry.”
Hurt said farrowing intentions were also in line with the breeding herd, with a lower reduction of 2 percent in the June-August quarter.
“Bottom line, the industry is seeing just modest expansion of the breeding herd, and that’s a little bit of comfort on overall supplies,” he said.
But Brown said the June-August pig crop was revised up by about 868,000 head, and the December inventory was revised up by about 95,000 head.
“Not much compared to the huge increase they added to the June-August numbers,” he said.
The report said U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.87 million sows farrow during the March-May 2015 quarter, up 2 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2014, and up 2 percent from 2013. 
“Intended farrowings for June-August 2015, at 2.93 million sows, are down 2 percent from 2014, but up 1 percent from 2013,” the report read. 
“The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 46 percent of the total United States hog inventory, down from 48 percent last year,” the report added.
The U.S. market hog inventory, at 60.0 million head, was up 8 percent from last year, but down slightly from last quarter, the report said. 
According to Vaught, “the weight breakdown for 180 and over as of March 1 implies the March slaughter will run 9 percent over a year ago. That matches what we’ve been seeing the last few weeks.”
Regarding price estimates, Hurt estimated (using a live weight basis) that prices would reach about $54 for the second quarter; $55 for the third quarter; and $50 for the fourth quarter, with an average for the year of $52.
As the nation’s leading pork producer, Iowa accounted for the largest inventory among the states, at 20.4 million head, the report said; however, the March 1 inventory was down 2 percent from December 2014, but up 5 percent from last March’s 19.5 million head. North Carolina and Minnesota had the second and third largest inventories with 8.40 million and 7.85 million head, respectively. 
The report stated Illinois hogs and pigs on March 1 were 4.65 million head, up 1 percent from Dec. 1, 2014 and up 9 percent from last year. In Indiana, the total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 3.65 million head, up 300,000 head from a year ago.
On Michigan farms, the total hog and pig inventory on March 1 was estimated at 1.1 million head, up 100,000 head from a year ago, with Ohio’s total hog and pig inventory estimated at 2.27 million head, up 270,000 head from a year ago. (Kentucky and Tennessee hog numbers weren’t included in the report.)
4/9/2015