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Storms set back some soybean planting west of the Mississippi

 

 

By MATTHEW D. ERNST

Missouri Correspondent

 

ST. LOUIS, Mo. — The remnants of Tropical Depression Bill dumped more than an inch of rain here last Friday, capping off a week of storms that kept soybean planters and drills parked in much of the Show Me State.

While delayed soybean plantings may cause yield drops in Missouri and Kansas, the delay in planting here is not likely to impact the broader market, at this stage. "There is still time for soybeans to be planted (in Missouri and Kansas)," said Aaron Smith, University of Tennessee grain marketing specialist.

Though many Missouri producers are crippled by the rain and mud, only these two states faced substantial planting delays among the 18 major soybean-producing states. Missouri reported 42 percent of acres planted, while Kansas had planted 57 percent on June 15. In Missouri, the five-year average for plantings on June 15 is 79 percent. That meant more than 3 million acres of soybeans to plant in Missouri at the beginning of last week, or over half the state’s intended acreage. For the 18 leading states, plantings stood at 87 percent on June 15, only slightly behind the five-year average of 90 percent. Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio all reported at least 90 percent of soybean acres planted as of June 15.

Kentucky and Tennessee had a smaller percentage planted – but that was on trend for the southern states, where many soybeans are double-cropped after wheat.

Smith said the delays in Missouri and Kansas do not impact the outlook, at this date, for overall U.S. production.

"I’d be more worried (about total U.S. yield) if the delays were in the north, like in the Dakotas," he said – both states were both ahead of the five-year trend for soybean plantings on June 15.

For near-term market impacts, he said analysts are watching U.S. soybean stocks (last year’s crop) more closely than this year’s plantings. Stocks remain relatively high at 330 million bushels, he said, but exports persist: "I think we will still see domestic soybean stocks continue to fall as we move toward this year’s harvest."

While tighter stocks could result in a favorable futures-cash price spread for farmers in Missouri and beyond who may have held some beans, late plantings cloud yield prospects for this year’s Missouri crop.

"Regardless of location, soybean planting lags normal and yield potential has been reduced (in this state)," said Bill Wiebold, University of Missouri soybean specialist, in last week’s crop update. His research shows late-June soybeans yield 25 percent less than May-planted soybeans in central Missouri.

Some parts of the state were not as soggy last week, notably in the northwest. Many of those soybean farmers were able to catch up, said Wayne Flanary, regional extension agronomist in Holt County. "Soybean planting really progressed around here this week," he said Friday.

A big help in northwestern Missouri: Rains from the tropical depression stayed south and east of Kansas City. "We still saw spotty showers," said Flanary. Producers there are upping populations to make up for late plantings, he said.

Missouri harvested 5.6 million acres of soybeans in 2014, just behind North Dakota’s 5.87 million. The top two producers were Iowa (9.82 million) and Illinois (9.78).

Indiana harvested the fifth-highest acreage, at 5.49 million, according to the USDA. Nebraska (5.35 million), South Dakota (5.1 million), Ohio (4.84 million), Kansas (3.96 million) and Arkansas (3.21 million) rounded out the top 10 soybean states.

6/25/2015