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HOG OUTLOOK: July rise in retail 2prices helps, but pork still below 2014
 
By RON PLAIN
University of Missouri
 
The retail pork price grew by 7 cents per pound in July to $3.77. This was the largest month-to-month gain since last August, but the retail price is still 45 cents lower than the record set last September. While the July composite retail pork price trailed the year-ago level by 8.7 percent, the change in individual items varied, with sliced bacon down 13.7 percent versus last July and boneless pork chops up 1.9 percent. The composite retail chicken price remained in a range of $1.93-$2.03 per pound for the 27th consecutive month, providing steady competition in the meat case.
July pork production data were also released last week. The 1.973 billion pounds of commercial pork production in July was 9.6 percent greater than a year ago, with production for the first seven months of the year 7.4 percent above last year’s pace. Federally inspected dressed hog weights fell 2 pounds versus June to 210 pounds, 3 pounds less than July 2014. Weights have now been at least 2 pounds below year-ago levels for the past four months.
Expansion continues in the Canadian hog herd but at a slower pace than in the U.S. July 1 sow inventory numbers for Canada were up 0.8 percent versus a year ago, with total hog inventories up 1.1 percent. Though the Canadian hog herd has been increasing steadily for nearly three years, the slow rate of increase has only yielded an inventory of 615,000 more hogs (4.9 percent) on July 1 than the Jan. 1, 2013, level.
Cash hog prices were down for the week. Thursday’s average negotiated carcass price for plant-delivered hogs was $74.82 per cwt., down 89 cents from the previous week. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report Aug. 21 was $72.89 per cwt., down $1.95 for the week, and $21.33 lower than a year ago. The Western Corn Belt price dropped $6.01 per cwt. to $71.11. Eastern Corn Belt hogs sold at $73.21 per cwt. Friday morning, and there was no quote for Iowa-Minnesota. Peoria had a top price Aug. 21 of $48 per cwt., unchanged from the previous week, as was the top for interior Missouri live hogs of $52.75 per cwt.
The pork cutout value also fell last week, with Friday’s morning cutout at $87.36 per cwt. FOB the plants, down $2.52. Bellies gave up ground for the first week since late April, falling 7.8 percent. Loins were down 5.5 percent, while hams gained 5.6 percent. Other parts of the carcass were little changed. Friday morning’s national negotiated hog price equaled 83.4 percent of the cutout value, an increase of just 0.1 percent versus the previous week’s level.
Hog slaughter for last week was 2.226 million head, up 0.6 percent from the previous week and 11.2 percent higher than the same week last year. The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 275.5 pounds, 0.7 pound lower than the week before and 7.0 pounds below a year ago.
The October lean hog contract fell $2.75 for the week to end at $62.82 per cwt. December hogs lost $3.18, closing at $58.87. February hogs finished at $64 per cwt.
September corn closed Friday at $3.65 per bushel, up 1 cent from the previous Friday. December closed at $3.77.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.
8/27/2015