WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — While Indiana was hit hardest by record rainfall this year, its losses to flooding are less than half of projections.
USDA estimates statewide, soybean yields will be 51 bushels per acre, which is higher than the 50 expected in a "normal" year, said Chris Hurt, Purdue University ag economist. Likewise, the corn crop is healthier than expected in some parts of the state.
"In the summer I estimated that the flooding losses of Indiana corn and soybeans could reach $500 million," Hurt said. "The actual losses now appear to be much smaller – around $200 million, and concentrated in certain areas."
Ideal weather conditions in August and September helped contribute to the health of the soybean crop, especially in southern Indiana, where USDA-projected yields will be 5-10 percent above normal.
"We are always surprised about the resilience of soybeans. We had ideal weather conditions to finish both corn and soybean crops. You can’t predict ideal conditions. This has been one of the nicest falls," said Ed Ebert, director of grain marketing at Indiana Corn Marketing Council and Indiana Soybean Alliance.
Hurt, however, said some areas in the northeastern, northwestern and east-central regions of Indiana will still see soybean yields 5-10 percent below normal.
Corn condition varied by region, with USDA estimates for the entire state at 156 bushels per acre, about 10 below a normal yield, Hurt said. "Flooding damage on corn was more permanent in the northern two-thirds of the state where USDA yield estimates by crop reporting district are down 5-20 percent from normal," he said. "The worst-hit areas are the northwest and west-central parts of the state."
Similar to soybeans, the corn crop is much better in southern Indiana, with yields 5-10 percent greater than in a normal weather year.
In sum, Hurt said the overall picture is much brighter than first thought, but many Indiana families are still impacted by low yields and depressed prices. Some grain farmers are squeezed between lower yields and lower prices, making this year unique in terms of disaster years.
"Some farmers say this year is worse for them than 2012 because in 2012 everyone had lower yields due to the drought, and the prices were higher," Ebert explained.
In the Eastern Corn Belt, Indiana was affected the most by excess rain and flooding, based on state corn trend yields. While the state is 5-6 percent below its corn trend yield, Illinois is only 2.5 percent below and Ohio is on track, Ebert said.
Meanwhile, the Western Corn Belt is experiencing record yields, keeping prices low. Corn’s market price is currently on a negative downward trend compared to a month ago, he said.
"The main thing in Indiana during the growing season was the variability of the crops, which impacted the Indiana corn trend yield. Corn is 5 to 6 percent below trend, which is significant when compared to the rest of the country. We’re like an island," Ebert explained.
USDA’s October crop report did not reflect any major changes from its September report. Ebert said the most interesting aspect may be the national corn yield went up while overall production was lowered by 1 percent. Harvested corn acres were down by about 400,000.
A slight uptick in yield was a surprise, Ebert added, at 168 bushels per acre. "For the Japanese, one of our largest export buyers, a bigger issue than yield was the acres. It implies that certain corn grain acres will be used for silage or not harvested for grain."
U.S. farmers who follow estimates on planted acres are sometimes frustrated, Ebert said. In June, the National Agricul-tural Statistics Service (NASS) released an acreage report based on farmer surveys and objective data. Last week, the Farm Service Agency released to NASS an update based on farmer signup and recent data, which showed planted acres for both soybeans and corn down by about 1 percent.
"The NASS report is based on portions of the planted acres. There will be a certain amount of error," Ebert said.
Exports of soybeans are down by 50 million bushels from September, according to the most recent WASDE report, lagging behind last year’s pace.
Ebert said this is due in part to the strength of the U.S. dollar and strong Brazilian exports.
At the same time, WASDE is projecting record demand for soybeans in the U.S. crush industry, up by 10 million bushels from September’s report.
"Our soybean production has recovered nicely. We have a large soybean crop. The question is where additional demand will come since we lost some exports on the front end (to Brazil) in August and September," he said.
