ST. LOUIS, Mo. — The Thanksgiving turkey could cost a little more this year than last, and holiday bakers will certainly pay more for eggs this season. But shortages are unlikely, even in the aftermath of avian influenza.

Retail poultry product prices depend on the region and how much local grocers discount frozen turkeys to lure in shoppers. Turkey production is down, as producers are still recovering from the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

Minnesota, the country’s top turkey producer, lost more than 2 million birds. The USDA reported about 2 million fewer turkeys produced in the United States for the year through Oct. 1, compared to 2014.

There is still plenty of turkey in cold storage – 454 million pounds, as of Oct. 1, only 31 million pounds fewer than last October. Frozen turkeys are stockpiled many months in advance of the holidays.

Frozen turkey stocks did start declining in August, a bit sooner than usual. But that decline came because U.S. turkey meat exports did not drop as quickly as production, according to one USDA analysis. The export effect is supported by U.S. cold storage data. Frozen whole tom inventories declined 6 percent in August, while frozen whole hens declined only 3 percent.

Food exporters apparently drew down more toms from cold storage to counteract lower turkey slaughter and supply major export markets, like Mexico. The Mexican market favors turkey meat from toms. That left relatively more frozen turkey hens, favored in the U.S. holiday market, ready to head to stores for the Thanksgiving market.

Will those whole turkeys cost more? That depends on how deeply grocers discount prices. Some offer lower frozen turkey prices with the purchase of a certain grocery amount. Schnuck’s, a St. Louis-based supermarket chain, last week offered shoppers one frozen turkey at 65 cents per pound with a qualifying $25 purchase of other groceries.

So the Thanksgiving turkey price probably depends more on local grocery pricing policy and consumer buying habits, rather than lower turkey slaughter.

U.S. turkey hatcheries are still catching up to replace lost populations, especially as turkey producers eye lower feed prices in 2016 and demand more poults. September saw 14 percent fewer poults hatched than in 2014, and placements were down 8 percent from last year.

Lower egg exports, and fewer shell eggs broken for products, is helping ease the crush created by HPAI on fresh egg supply.

September’s egg export volume was down 38 percent from one year earlier. Shell eggs broken for products were down 15 percent in September, compared to the year previous.

Wholesale egg prices in the Midwest peaked in August. Those prices dropped almost $1 per dozen between August and October, according to AMS price reports. The Egg Industry Center, citing Urner Berry data, reports average U.S. egg farm prices fell from $2.04 per dozen in August to $1.24 in October – even while average retail prices stayed around $3.

Still, the October farm price was nearly 33 cents higher per dozen than in October 2014.

Retail egg prices are now dropping. The most recent USDA price projection for the baseline New York egg market is around $2.25 per dozen for the Thanksgiving/Christmas period – about 40 percent higher than last year, but significantly less than consumers paid recently.

As with turkeys, egg shortages this holiday are unlikely, especially without any new HPAI outbreaks. "So far we haven’t seen any real new (HPAI) cases," said Jeff Firman, University of Missouri poultry specialist. "So, I like to think we’re going to make it through the fall okay, but it’s a little bit early to say that," he said, in a Nov. 9 extension update.

Chicken hatcheries have ramped up to meet demand for layer replacements. The egg-type hatchery supply flock is projected to be 10 percent higher during the first quarter of 2016 than the year previous, according to an estimate from the Egg Industry Center at Iowa State University.