WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — U.S. growers are expecting record soybean acreage in 2017, intending to plant an estimated 89.5 million acres this spring – up 7 percent from last year – with the grain markets bolstering soy, which will cause major price volatility, according to a USDA report released March 31.

 

“The 2017 USDA Prospective Plantings report was directionally as expected, but shows more acreage shifting than most expected,” explained Dave Miller, Iowa Farm Bureau Federation director of research and commodity services in West Des Moines.

 

With current economics favoring soybeans over corn and wheat, he said there was widespread anticipation there would be fewer wheat and corn acres, and more for soybeans. “These expectations were met and exceeded, with national corn plantings expected to drop about 4 percent,” he said. “Both winter wheat and spring wheat plantings are at their lowest in 20 years. Soybean plantings are expected to be at record levels in nine states and for the U.S.”

 

If realized, soybeans will surpass the previous record of 83.4 million acres planted last year, the report said, with acreage intentions for soybeans up or unchanged in 27 of the 31 estimating states. The report added the largest increase is expected in Kansas, with 5 million acres – an increase of 950,000 acres from 2016.

 

The planted area of soybeans in Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota and Wisconsin will be the largest on record, the report said.

 

Corn growers indicated in the March 1 USDA survey that they intend to plant 90 million acres in 2017, down 4 percent from last year but 2 percent higher than in 2015; expected returns for corn are anticipated to be lower, compared with other crops in 2017. 

 

This year, Illinois corn growers intend to plant 11.3 million acres, down 3 percent from 2016, the report said. Soybean planted area is expected to total 10.2 million acres, up 1 percent from last year. In Indiana, farmers intend to plant 6 million acres of soybeans, which would be a new record. Acres planted to soybeans would be up 8 percent from 2016, while acres intended for corn are 5.6 million, unchanged from last year. As the nation’s top corn and soybean producer, Iowa’s farmers intend to plant 13.3 million acres of corn; however, this is a decrease of 600,000 acres from 2016.

 

This would be the lowest planted acreage since 2008. The state’s producers intend to plant 10.1 million acres of soybeans this year, a 600,000-acre increase from 2016; if realized, this would be the largest planted acreage in 11 years. In Kentucky, farmers intend to plant 1.32 million acres of corn, 180,000 fewer than last year. Soybean acreage was expected to total 1.9 million acres, up 110,000. And in Michigan, producers intend to plant 2.35 million acres of soybeans, up 280,000 from last year, as well as 2.3 million acres of corn, down 100,000 acres. 

 

In Ohio, corn growers intend to plant 3.5 million acres this spring, unchanged from last year. Soybean acreage is forecast at 5 million for 2017, up 150,000 acres and a new record high.

 

Tennessee farmers intend to plant 840,000 acres of corn, 40,000 fewer than last year. Soybean acreage is expected to total 1.75 million, up 90,000 acres from last year. Upland cotton acreage to be planted is forecast at 300,000, up 45,000 from 2016.

 

Other key findings in the report include:

 

•All wheat planted area for 2017 is estimated at 46.1 million acres, down 8 percent from 2016

 

•Winter wheat planted acres, at 32.7 million, is down

9 percent from last year but up 1 percent from the previous estimate

 

•Area planted to other spring wheat for 2017 is expected to total 11.3 million acres, down 3 percent from 2016

 

•Durum wheat is expected to total 2 million acres for 2017, down 17 percent

 

•All cotton-planted area for 2017 is expected to total 12.2 million acres, 21 percent above last year On the Chicago Board of Trade, November soybean futures fell 9 cents to $9.54 a bushel on Friday, with December corn rising 7 cents to $3.88 and wheat for July delivery adding a nickel to reach $4.39.

 

“With record soybean acreage now officially expected, traders’ eyes will turn to the skies to see if projections of average to above-average yields will be realized in 2017,” Miller said. “Corn prices have some potential to find a bottom, as the acreage decline almost assures less production in 2017 than last year.”

 

Clarke McGrath, Iowa State University agronomist and on-farm research and extension coordinator at ISU’s Iowa Soybean Research Center, said from an economic exposure perspective, the lower input costs for soybeans means that with no clearly significant advantage for one crop over the other, there is much momentum toward pulling back on corn-on-corn – where there isn’t an onfarm or local basis-driven need for corn.

 

“In the absence of reliable and attractive local incentive to have corn, we are seeing a trend towards looking at the lower input costs, lower economic exposure and relative yield stability that beans are offering this year,” he explained.