A clipper system raked the region early this week and decided to remind us again that it is winter, after all. Behind that clipper, a reinforcing shot of cold air moved in that we still find ourselves dealing with for a bit longer. Some subzero temperatures have been reported at midweek over parts of the region, particularly in Indiana and Ohio, where clearing has been most prevalent.
The cold air remains as we venture into the second half of the week, with highs doing no better than mid-teens to mid-20s through Jan. 18. Friday we may get back closer to normal for this time of year. The week will be dry, and we do expect sunshine to be a big player, much like we saw earlier this week. Sunny and cold will describe most of the rest of this week.
Strong southwest winds bring moderating temperatures back for the weekend. We go above normal on Jan. 20, and stay there Jan. 21 as winds strengthen ahead of our next front. That front will bring rain from a quarter-inch to three-quarters of an inch over 90 percent of the area from midnight Sunday through Monday afternoon.
The maps show a snapshot of action for Sunday night. Rain in Michigan and northern Indiana are a little overdone on this map, in our opinion, and we are going with a more conservative approach to this system. However, the geographic spread shown here matches our thoughts.
Temperatures cool slightly behind that front for early next week, but we do not see cold arctic air returning. Instead, temperatures stay near normal for most of next week. South winds are back at midweek, suggesting that another strong system is in the works in the Plains. However, it may take several days to get here.
Indeed, in the extended 11-16 day period we see a massive system coming together in the Four Corners region late on Jan. 26, and then it slowly churns eastward. This significant storm looks to move into our region around Jan. 28, and will have liquid equivalent precipitation potential of a half-inch to 1.5 inches.
Currently, the track of the heaviest action is well south of us, crossing the Deep South, but a system like this needs to be watched as it evolves. The map at right shows one solution of where this front can be on Jan. 28.
Behind it we likely see cold, arctic high pressure returning for the finish of the month and start of February. The cold air should come in stages … the initial push behind the front for Jan. 29-30, and then a colder shot behind a clipper we think could emerge around Jan. 31 into Feb. 1.
Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.
This significant storm looks to move into our region around Jan. 28. The storm may produce as much as 1.5 inches of precipitation.
Rain in Michigan and northern Indiana are a little overdone, in our opinion, on this map, and we are going with a more conservative approach to this system.