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Climate report forecasts economic risks by 2100
 

By STAN MADDUX

VERSAILLES, Ind. — A lifelong Indiana farmer blames climate change for challenges brought on by weather that he can’t recall ever being this extreme until recently.

Jim Benham said he’s not a scientist, but observed that nowadays storm clouds at times produce 2-3 times as much precipitation as they once did. He said wet and dry periods also last longer. He noted the result has been shorter windows for planting and harvesting, along with damage to the quality of his corn and soybeans.

“I’m giving my opinion. Now, granted, for every one I give you, there’s probably two or three guys out there saying that’s not true,” he said.

Benham, 67, planted just soybeans this year on 1,200 acres of clay soil near Versailles in the southeastern part of Indiana. Some of his crop is still out in the field because conditions were dry enough for harvesting just one or two days a week, he said.

He was also delayed from waiting on some of his waterlogged beans to dry out, to avoid being damaged by the combine.

Benham said the situation this year is more of a regular occurrence since he started noticing more extremes in the weather in the late 1990s. As a child, he remembered his father wishing for an inch of rain every Saturday so he could go to church on Sunday and relax before heading back out in the fields during the growing season.

Now, he said there are deluges in the summer, when 1.5 inches of rain at most used to come down at one time. ‘’I’ve seen two to three events this past summer that was over 5 inches,’’ said Benham.

His observations seem to be at least partly backed by scientists in the latest National Climate Assessment (NCA) released on Nov. 23. The scientific report produced by 13 federal agencies is published every four years.

The NCA paints a bleak future for life on the planet by the end of the century because of continued rising temperatures and sea levels, wildfires and shortages in food production – unless there’s drastic and immediate action.

By 2100, the NCA estimates a 10 percent drop in the nation’s gross domestic product, or more than double the percentage loss of the Great Recession this century.

Extremes in temperature and precipitation will result in loss of crops and livestock, along with strained water supplies and soil erosion, according to the report. The quality of food could also suffer; dairy cows sensitive to heat stress, for example, would produce milk with less fat, lactose and protein percentages, the NCA stated.

Melissa Widhalm, operations manager of the Climate Change Research Center at Purdue University, substantiated Benham’s remarks. She said historical records show Indiana receives about 5 more inches of rain annually than 100 years ago.

She also said findings of the 2018 Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment, a study independent of the NCA report, produced similar results. It can be found online at https://ag.purdue.edu/indianaclimate

Although both reports create a sense of alarm, Widhalm said she’s optimistic that warming can be slowed enough to become more of a manageable situation. She said developing crops more resistant to weather extremes has been done successfully for years, and believes those resistances can be made stronger over time as Mother Nature’s swings gradually increase.

She said research has also made strides on how to improve the health of soil and allow it to better absorb greater amounts of precipitation by adding organic matter. Other ways of adapting to climate change could be growing more crops further north and planting earlier to avoid longer periods of summer heat and drought.

 Widhalm also noted cattle might have to be moved from desert-like areas closer to the Midwest for cooler temperatures and more shade trees.

“I feel pretty strongly that we have a little bit of time on our side. While these changes are happening and they’re underway, we’re adjusting to them as they’re happening, too,” she explained.

Widhalm said some farmers could also look at climate change as an opportunity to do more things like double-cropping, from having longer growing seasons.

She said it’s scary to imagine the effects of climate change on humanity at its peak, but the focus should be on finding solutions for reducing its worst impacts.

“We just can’t stick our heads in the sand and pretend it’s not happening, but we shouldn’t be fearful of it, either. Let that fear motivate us to adapt and slow down the changes,” Widhalm added.

The NCA can be accessed online at https://nca2018.globalchange.gov

12/5/2018