MILWAUKEE, Wis. – There’s reason for optimism among farm machinery manufacturers as sales numbers have generally been better than expected so far in 2020, according to an official with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM).

Toward the end of last year, economists were predicting 2020 would be a down year and 2021 would show a strong recovery, said Curt Blades, AEM’s senior vice president of agricultural services. “That was the story we were working with. We had soft sales in January and February, but after March, they sort of took off and haven’t slowed. The increase has been driven by small tractors, but it’s pretty good across the board.”

Sales of two-wheel-drive tractors under 40 HP rose 18 percent through September over the same period in 2019, according to AEM’s mid-October sales report. Two-wheel-drive tractors of 40-100 HP were up 10.9 percent while those 100 HP or more fell 1.8 percent. Four-wheel-drive tractors dropped 4.7 percent. Self-propelled combines were up 4.3 percent.

Comparing numbers in September 2020 with September 2019, sales in all categories rose, AEM said. All two-wheel-drive tractors were up 21.6 percent while four-wheel-drive tractors increased 21.4 percent. Combines were up 8.2 percent.

The majority of small tractor sales are to people with acreage or to hobby farmers, Blades said. “There are parts of the overall economy doing pretty well right now. People aren’t traveling so their nesting investment may be a tractor.”

Combine sales have seen a small rally for the last year or so, he explained. Blades attributed the sales increase to farmers looking to replace older equipment or to those seeking to add some capacity. Some may be purchasing to take advantage of new technologies that every major combine manufacturer is offering, he added.

Sales of 100-plus HP two-wheel-drive tractors are improving after softer numbers earlier in the year, Blades noted. He said the increase could be crop driven.

“I would love to be optimistic (about the future) and I tend to be optimistic in general,” he stated. “But we’ve got a major election coming up that could change things. There are lots of extenuating factors, such as will the coronavirus continue. There is reason for optimism but there are these factors out there.”

The latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer shows farmers are optimistic about making machinery purchases. The barometer’s September farm capital investment index was the highest of 2020, said Jim Mintert, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. The most recent Ag Barometer was released Oct. 6.

Consistent with that increase, “farmers are more optimistic about their ability and willingness to make farm machinery purchases in 2020 than they were earlier in the year,” he explained. “Back in April, just 29 percent of the farmers intended to purchase about the same amount of farm machinery as they had a year earlier. In the September survey, that had risen all the way to 49 percent, a pretty significant improvement since spring.”

Overall, the barometer rose to 156, up from last month’s 144. The study gauges the health of the U.S. agricultural economy. A value greater than 100 shows positive sentiment toward the economy; values lower than 100 indicate negative sentiment.