By TIM ALEXANDER

Illinois Correspondent

URBANA, Ill. — Evidence continues to amass that should convince most farmers to shift fertilizer applications away from the fall to the spring. Among the most important reasons: improved water quality impacts. But today’s high fertilizer prices, coupled with heightened uncertainty surrounding availability, have given applicators reasons to move forward with at least some level of fall nitrogen (N) application as a risk management strategy.

This is according to the University of Illinois farmdoc team, which hosted a recent webinar to discuss fertilizer decisions for the 2023 crop. The webinar was hosted by Gary Schnitkey, a professor of farm management for the University of Illinois Department of Crop Sciences. Farmers who make fall applications this year should consider “booking” some of their 2023 corn while prices remain high, according to Schnitkey. “I would look at pricing some of that corn output, because right now we do have some pretty good corn prices. Chances are if we have a good crop here and Brazil has a good crop, prices could be lower. So we don’t want to buy nitrogen while it’s high and (sell) the corn at lower prices. Think about booking some of your corn now, but not all of it,” he said.

With production costs expected to average around $1,200 per acre in 2023, western Champaign County farmer Joe Klein agreed that selling some of next year’s corn now will help reduce the financial risk associated with fall 2022 N applications. “Any time you can take some of the risk off the table, through hedging or whatever, it makes solid business sense,” said Klein, who, along with Kyle Meece, agronomy manager for United Prairie LLC in Monticello, joined Schnitkey during the webinar. 

Meece urged farmers who plan to make spring N applications to begin consulting with their fertilizer dealers immediately to ensure on-time delivery in early 2023. “You have to pre-plan,” he said. “With today’s infrastructure, whether it’s people needed to work, shipping issues, Mississippi River issues, etcetera, we have to have a plan in place so we know what to bring in.” 

Schnitkey said a case can be made that fertilizer prices could increase even more in 2023 — or just the opposite. “We have a shortage of natural gas in Europe, a major input. But natural gas prices are coming down here, so there you go,” he said. 

Recently released data from Precision Conservation Management (PCM) supports the farmdoc team’s recommendation to consider fall-applied N this year. While the data shows that fall-applied N is not the most profitable timing option for Illinois farmers, PCM Director Greg Goodwin said current nitrogen limitations such as price, sourcing and availability means farmers might be challenged to utilize spring-time application in 2023. 

“We recognize the difficulty (of) making the transition to a more regular spring application on your operation, but those who have made the switch are seeing great gains not only in their profitability, but also in their environmental impact,” Goodwin said in a news release. 

If farmers are faced with no other option than to fall apply, PCM data strongly recommends that farmers apply according to the MRTN (maximum return to nitrogen) and closely follow guidelines outlined by the U of I farmdoc team:

 1: No fall application on light or very heavy-textured soil.

2: No application at soil temperatures above 50 degrees Fahrenheit.

3: No fall application in regions without cold winters, including southern Illinois

Nitrogen fertilizer prices remain “high and volatile,” leading to concerns about fertilizer costs moving into 2023, according to the farmdoc team. In an October article, the team noted that farmers have several tools for managing risks, including the Post Application Coverage Endorsement (PACE), a crop insurance tool reducing the risks associated with applying nitrogen after planting.

“Nitrogen fertilizer prices are volatile again, which will likely continue until global financial conditions become more certain and the Ukraine-Russia conflict moves closer to resolution. In this environment, farmers can reduce risk by applying near MRTN rates, spreading fertilizer purchases across time, and applying a portion of nitrogen after planting. PACE is a crop insurance product that can reduce the risks of waiting until after planting to apply nitrogen,” the farmdoc team said in their article, “PACE and Nitrogen Fertilizer Strategies for 2023.” 

In November, the PACE program was expanded to include all 102 Illinois counties in the 2023 crop season for non-irrigated corn. PACE provides supplemental coverage when a producer plans on split-applying nitrogen but is prevented due to field conditions caused by adverse weather. It also allows farmers the opportunity to use split-apply to increase efficiency, decrease nitrogen runoff, and maximize their financial investment, according to the Illinois Corn Growers Association.