Changes to domestic balance sheets were greater than expected in the March supply and demand report. Corn ending stocks increased 75 million bu (mbu) to total 1.342 billion bu (bbu) which was on the high end of trade guesses. This was all from lower export expectations. This is also very close to the ending stocks the US had at the end of the 2021/22 marketing year. The average bushel forecast on corn is now $6.60. 

The USDA trimmed its US soybean ending stocks estimate to 210 mbu, down 15 mbu from February and the lowest carryout in seven years. Exports were bumped up by 25 mbu due to recent demand and thoughts this will continue given a smaller Argentine crop. The USDA did reduce its crush forecast by 10 mbu. The average cash value of soybeans is projected at $14.30. 

Domestic wheat balance sheets were unchanged on the month which left ending stocks at 568 mbu. This was 31 mbu more than the average trade guess. Domestic wheat ending stocks are still 130 mbu less than a year ago, however. The average price per bushel forecast on wheat is $9. 

It is no surprise that more changes took place to the world balance sheets. Global corn ending stocks are now projected at 296.5 million metric tons (mmt) which was 3.4 mmt above the average trade guess and at the top of the estimate range. Soybean ending stocks are now forecast at an even 100 mmt, equal the average trade guess. The world wheat supply was below trade estimates at 267.2 mmt. Higher Chinese feed demand is a primary reason for the lower carryout estimate. It should also be noted that world wheat production this year will fall 5 mmt short of projected usage. 

The most interest going into this report was on South American production, primarily what changes would take place in Argentina. Argentine soybean production was lowered to 33 mmt, down 8 mmt from February and at the bottom of trade estimates. Argentine corn production came in under trade estimates at 40 mmt and down a large 7 mmt from last month. Brazil production estimates were left unchanged at 153 mmt on soybeans and 125 mmt on corn. 

Beef production for 2023 was raised 170 million pounds to total 26.67 billion pounds. This is still a decline of 1.63 billion pounds from 2022. Pork production for 2023 is predicted at 27.41 billion pounds, a 30 million pound decline from the February estimate. This is a large 420 million pounds more than the US produced in 2022. Average steer values are projected at $161.75 pr hundredweight and hogs are at $65.75 per hundredweight. 

Meat export predictions were unchanged on the month with 3.09 billion pounds on beef and 6.35 billion pounds of pork. Beef trade for 2023 is expected to be down 446 million pounds from last year while pork exports are expected to increase 12 million pounds on the year. 

Trade has received the January export numbers from the US Commerce Department. For the month, the United States exported 124.8 mbu of corn, 20.5 mbu less than in December 2022, and a sizable 107.5 mbu less than January 2022 exports. Soybean shipments in the month totaled 314.5 mbu, 10.3 mbu more than in December and 79.6 mbu more than last January. Wheat exports in January totaled 65.7 mbu, an increase of 26.1 mbu from December and 2.2 mbu more than last January. 

A concern that is starting to be more of a market factor in the loss of the global market share that the US covers. The United States used to be the world’s largest commodity provider, but this has changed considerably in the past several years. The most notable of these has been the loss of soybean demand as South America ramps up its production. Not only have we seen increases to soybean production in South America, but improved infrastructure as well. The most noted of these are in Brazil where the paving of roads and building of new ports in northern regions are making exports timelier. A result of these is that the United States is now forecast to have just a 30% share of global soybean trade. 

We are no seeing more of a concern over the United States’ share of global corn trade. As with soybeans, South America is producing larger corn crops which are competing with the US, especially into the Asian market. The most interest on this has been China who recently opened its door for elevated Brazilian imports. Thoughts are the United States will see its share of global corn trade drop to less than 30% this marketing year as well. 

The US may lose even more of its global market share if China increases its GMO corn production. Less than 1% of China’s corn production this year will be GMO, but the country is looking at increasing this volume to become more self-reliant on grain needs. The current corn yield in China is well below the US at just 100 bushels per acre. While it is unlikely China will match US production, it will increase enough to greatly reduce future needs. 

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