WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. farmers will plant an estimated 92 million acres of corn this year, up from 2022 and more than analysts had expected prior to the release of the USDA’s plantings report on March 31.

Soybean acreage is expected to be up slightly, while all wheat acreage – including winter wheat – is projected to rise, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) said.

Planting forecasts made in early March should probably be taken with a grain of salt, said Todd Hultman, DTN lead analyst. “It’s just very difficult to get a handle on planting when you don’t yet know just how the weather conditions are going to play out through the planting season. But, if anything, (the numbers) do give us a general idea – it’s based on a survey of 73,000-plus producers – giving us their planting intentions. But like anyone that has kids in school, you know sometimes there’s a difference between intentions and the homework that actually gets done.”

Corn acreage, if realized, would be up 4 percent, or 3.42 million acres, over 2022. Soybean acreage would be 87.5 million, up from 87.45 million. All wheat acreage is projected to be 49.9 million, up 9 percent. Winter wheat, at 37.5 million, would be up 13 percent.

“Before the report’s release, analysts expected farmers to plant 90.8 million corn acres and 88.2 million soybean acres this year,” noted Todd D. Davis, chief economist for the Indiana Farm Bureau. “The analysts believed the corn area would increase from last year despite high input prices, projections of lower prices and tighter profit margins for the 2023 corn crop.”

The NASS projection of nearly 92 million corn acres is near the upper range of analysts’ estimates for 2023 and was over 1.1 million acres above the average trade expectation, he said. The soybean estimate is about 700,000 acres below the average trade expectation, Davis added.

Prior to the report’s release, Allendale, Inc. had estimated 90.4 million acres of corn, nearly 87.8 million of soybeans, 48.7 million of all wheat, and 36.5 million of winter wheat.

Hultman said the total acreage for corn, soybeans and wheat was just over 229 million, the highest in nine years.

For winter wheat, Hultman said the NASS estimate is just over a million acres more than expected, and is up over 4 million acres from what was planted a year ago.

“There’s a big weather factor adding a big question mark on those planted acres, or we could call them survivable acres,” he said. “A lot of those probably won’t make it to harvested acres.”

In Farm World’s primary coverage area, corn acreage is expected to be up in all the states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee. Soybean acreage will be unchanged in Illinois, Iowa and Ohio; and down in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Tennessee. Winter wheat acreage is expected to be up in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee.

“(Nationwide), some of the biggest increases (in corn production) were in states that had quite a bit of prevent plant last year, South Dakota, North Dakota specifically,” said Michael Langemeier, associate director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “One of the largest increases in corn acreage was in North Dakota – an increase of 800,000 acres. That’s a 27 percent increase.”

Jim Mintert, the center’s director, compared a map showing soybean planting intentions with a similar one for corn. “Except for the northern Corn Belt and the northern Plains, it’s almost a mirror image of the other one. A lot of positive states – a lot of increases in corn acreage in many of the Corn Belt states, and then reductions or flat on soybean acreage.”

NASS also released grain stocks numbers as of March 1. Corn stocks, at 7.4 billion bushels, were slightly less than expected, Hultman said. The total was the lowest in nine years.

Soybeans, at 1.69 billion, were also lower than expected, he said. The amount is the second lowest in seven years.

Wheat stocks totaled 946 million, higher than the 928 million expected by analysts, Hultman pointed out. The amount is still the lowest stocks number for this date in the past 15 years, he said.