As expected, very few changes took place to the domestic side of balance sheets in the April WASDE report. We had a slight decrease to US corn imports in the monthly data but an equal decrease to industrial use to leave ending stocks unchanged from March at 1.342 billion bu (bbu). No changes were made to soybean balance sheets from last month to hold ending stocks at 210 million bu (mbu). Wheat carryout increased 30 mbu from March to total 598 mbu as the USDA increased its wheat import forecast and lowered feed demand. All the April numbers were at the high end of trade estimates. Average market prices were steady on corn at $6.60 per bushel and soybeans at $14.30 per bushel, while the average wheat estimate declined 10 cents to $8.90. 

Minimal changes also took place to the global side of the balance sheets. Corn ending stocks were reduced a slight 1 million metric tons (mmt) due to a smaller crop in Argentina. This left world corn carryout at 295.4 mmt. World soybean ending stocks are nearly steady at 100.3 mmt as a smaller crop in Argentina was offset by a larger Brazil crop and reduced world crush expectations. The most interest going into the April report was on South American production, mainly on Argentina. The USDA lowered its Argentine corn crop estimate by 3 mmt to put it at 37 mmt. A large 6 mmt reduction to Argentina’s soybean crop put it at 27 mmt. This corn figure was in line with trade estimates while the soybean estimate was on the low end of guesses. No change was made to the Brazilian corn crop to keep it at 125 mmt. The USDA added 1 mmt to Brazil’s soybean crop to put it at 154 mmt. 

Livestock balance sheets had more changes for the month than the grains and soybeans did. US beef production for 2023 is now estimated at 26.78 billion pounds, an increase of 110 million pounds from March. Beef exports are projected at 3.135 billion pounds, an increase of 45 million pounds. Pork production is forecast at 27.36 billion pounds, a 50-million-pound reduction from last month. Pork exports are forecast to increase 30 million pounds to total 6.38 billion pounds. The average steer value is at $164.73 per hundredweight and hogs are at $60.96 per hundredweight. 

US grain and soybean export data for the month of February has been released. The United States exported 128.9 mbu of corn in February, 4 mbu more than it shipped out in January. Marketing year to date corn exports total 680 mbu, down 39% from last year. The USDA is predicting a 25% reduction to corn exports. Wheat exports totaled 68.8 mbu, a 3 mbu increase from January. Year to date wheat exports total 597 mbu, down 3% from last year and in line with the USDA forecast. Soybean exports came in at 197.5 mbu for the month, a sizable decline from January of 117 mbu. This loss in soybean exports is seasonal and credited to the large crop coming out of Brazil. Marketing year soybean exports total 1.6 billion bu, up 5% from last year and 13% ahead of the USDA projection. In February 2022 the US exported 232.2 mbu of corn, 63.5 mbu of wheat, and 234.9 mbu of soybeans. 

Demand for US corn has improved recently, especially in the export market. This is mainly from Chinese business with several daily sales announced in recent week. This buying has brought Chinese year to date purchases to roughly 8 million metric tons which is what trade has been predicting for Chinese demand for the marketing year. We will need to see China buy more than this volume to become more bullish for futures. Cumulative corn sales are still down from expectations though, which is also tempering trade reaction to the Chinese business. Building concerns over the quality of Ukraine corn and timely shipments out of the Black Sea may bring the US additional export business. This may be short-lived however as South American exports will soon be underway, and corn offers out of Brazil are already starting to soften. 

Unshipped US soybean sales are becoming more of a market topic, especially what is listed for China. China and unknown destinations, who is always thought to be China, currently have 112 mbu of unshipped soybean purchases on the books. This is less than half of the 251 mbu these two parties had on the books a year ago. China was listed as canceling 2 mbu of purchases last week and given the current spread between the US and Brazil, we could easily see more. China prefers US soybeans for its storage program though, which may limit them from washing out of a large volume of purchases. 

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