You’ll recall June milk production was up 3.3 percent from a year ago. StoneX says, “When you add the stronger components, there was 5.2 percent more solids to turn into cheese, butter and other products.”

The USDA’s latest Dairy Products report shows June Cheese output totaled 1.203 billion pounds, down 3.9 percent from May, but 4.2 percent above June 2024. Total output in the first six months of 2025 hit 7.3 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent from 2024.

Wisconsin cheese output fell to 297.4 million pounds, down 6.2 percent from May but was 1.4 percent above a year ago. California vats produced 209.0 million pounds, down 5.8 percent from May but 1.8 percent above a year ago. Idaho cheese totaled 84.9 million, down 3.0 percent from May and 4.4 percent below a year ago. New Mexico, with 72.0 million pounds, was down 12.4 percent from May, but 4.8 percent above a year ago.

Mozzarella production totaled 403.6 million pounds, up 3.3 percent from a year ago, with year-to-date (YTD) output hitting 2.4 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent from 2024. American cheese, at 473.1 million pounds, was down 7.1 percent from May, but was 4.8 percent above a year ago. YTD American hit 2.9 billion pounds, up 3.9 percent. Italian style cheeses totaled 517.4 million pounds, up 1.0 percent from May and up 2.4 percent from a year ago, with YTD at 2.6 billion pounds, up 1.2 percent.

Cheddar production dropped to 330.3 million pounds, down 25.1 million or 7.1 percent from May, but up 25.2 million or 8.3 percent from a year ago. YTD Cheddar hit 2.0 billion pounds, up 5.3 percent from a year ago.

Butter output dropped to 185.5 million pounds, still a new record for the month of June but down 26.4 million pounds or 12.5 percent from May, and 17.5 million or 10.4 percent more than a year ago. YTD butter hit 1.3 billion pounds up 4.6 percent from a year ago.

Yogurt production totaled 440.3 million pounds, up 11.7 percent from a year ago, with output for the year so far at 2.6 billion pounds, up 8.1 percent. Hard ice cream, at 64.9 million pounds, was down 3.9 percent from 2024. YTD production, at 367.1 million pounds, was down 2.3 percent from a year ago.

Dry whey output came in at 73.6 million pounds, up 2.1 million pounds or 2.9 percent from May, and up 500,000 pounds or 0.7 percent from a year ago. YTD whey output hit 417.6 million pounds, down 7.7 percent from a year ago. Whey stocks slipped to 58.5 million pounds, down 1.7 million or 2.8 percent from May, and were down 4.6 million or 7.3 percent from a year ago.

Nonfat dry milk (NFDM) output dropped to 139.8 million pounds, down 16.5 million or 10.5 percent from May, but was up 12.2 million pounds or 9.6 percent from a year ago.

NFDM YTD came in at 928.3 million pounds, down 1.3 percent from 2024. Stocks fell to 236.6 million pounds, down 13 million, or 5.2 percent from May, and down 3.6 million pounds or 1.5 percent from 2024.

Skim milk powder production grew to 53.9 million pounds, up 6.6 million pounds or 13.9 percent from May, but was down 14.9 million or 21.7 percent from a year ago. YTD SMP hit 235.9 million pounds, down 23.9 percent from 2024.

The Daily Dairy Report points out, “Plentiful cheese production resulted in increased availability of raw whey with manufacturers of whey protein isolates (WPI) in particular capitalizing on the opportunity. WPI production rose 11.1 percent year over year in June while output of whey protein concentrates increased 4.8 percent and dry whey production for human consumption climbed 5.8 percent.”

Speaking in the Aug.11 Dairy Radio Now broadcast, StoneX broker Dave Kurzawski said we’re not overproducing any dairy products. He pointed to the increased Mozzarella output and attributed that to increased processing capacity, but was a little surprised by nonfat dry milk. Output was a little stronger than expected, he said, but was still down from a year ago and inventory was down as well. “It’s a little strange the market is chopping sideways in the $1.20s, almost as far as the eye can see on the futures,” he said, but he doesn’t see anything in the report that will move the market one way or the other dramatically.

The increasing milk supply and dairy product output underscores the importance of exports which face headwinds from the global tariff wars. Kurzawski said the domestic market is “critically important but when it’s quiet, it certainly matters that we can export product and we’ve been doing that a lot this year.”

June U.S. dairy exports soared to 563.1 million pounds, highest level since May 2022, according to HighGround Dairy. “Shipments to Mexico and China surged, up a respective 15.1 million and 23.3 million.” HighGround says, “These sales were likely booked in March and may have been front-loaded ahead of Trump’s Liberation Day on April 2. Additionally, the weaker dollar and sizable discount that U.S. cheese and butter held to their global competitors also fueled sales.”

Cheese exports hit 115.1 million pounds, up 34.4 percent from a year ago, an all-time high for June, and third month in a row of a record being made. Top destinations included Mexico, South Korea, Japan and Australia.

Butter exports totaled 14.2 million pounds, up 100.4 percent, strongest total since 2014, according to HGD, and more than double that of June 2024. Total dairy exports to Canada dropped in June, but butter shipments rose 11.1 percent, with big increases to Saudi Arabia, Australia and the Netherlands.

U.S. butter prices were at a nearly $1 per pound discount to global competitors in first quarter, says HGD, and that difference grew to almost $1.25 in second quarter, meaning “more butter exports are (likely) on the horizon.”

Whey exports, at 38.3 million, were up 20.4 percent. Nonfat-skim milk powder totaled 131.1 million pounds, down 1.7 percent from a year ago and down 11.3 percent year to date.

Speaking of tariffs, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. trading partners were lobbying the White House for exemptions to Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline. India got the opposite, a doubling to 50 percent because it purchases oil from Russia. Word was that China could receive the same. Reports are that Trump may soon meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine and meet with China’s Xi Jinping, if a trade agreement with that country can be reached.

Checking prices in Chicago; block Cheddar was trading Thursday at $1.8250 per pound, highest CME price since June 13, 2025, following Friday’s close at $1.7050. The barrels were at $1.7950 Thursday, also the highest since June13, after finishing Friday at $1.71.

Dairy Market News reports that milk output continues to decline seasonally in the Central region as high temperatures negatively impact cow comfort. Mid-week Class III milk prices ranged from $1-under to $2-over. Retail and food service sales remain light. International purchasers are steadily ordering cheese. Vats are running steady to lighter as some plants say tight milk and increasing demand from Class I processors was reducing their ability to run full schedules.