It goes without saying that the potential U.S. corn yield is one of the heaviest debated topics in the current market. The USDA is using a 181 bushel per acre yield for the U.S. Several private analysts have issued models indicating the yield could be in the upper 180’s, with some above 190 bushels an acre. Many of these are using crop condition numbers which are highly unreliable and not intended for yield estimate purposes to begin with.

Recent weather across the U.S. has been less than ideal though, with some regions seeing drought while others have experienced excessive rainfall since early spring. This has created higher than normal variability in crop stands which are becoming more pronounced as the growing season progresses. One thing that is becoming more common is producers from across the Corn Belt stating they believe they have lost the top end of the corn crop. The question now is whether this reduction is from 185 bushels per acre, 181 bushels, or possibly 179 bushels.

Another moving target that is being a little overlooked in balance sheets is the possible shift in harvested acres. The USDA trimmed harvested acres more than usual on corn from the March planting intentions to the June revisions. There were still a large number of unplanted U.S. corn acres, and some analysts feel this will lead to even fewer acres in the final crop update. Even if the U.S. yield is at the top end of trade estimates, losing as few as 2 million acres will take 360 million bu of corn out of the U.S. supply, and put us in a rationing position. The U.S. could also lose 2 million acres and still harvest 2 million more than a year ago.

The United States continues to see its share of China’s soybean market shrink. The latest import data shows China took in 12.26 million metric tons of soybeans in June, a record for the month. Of this, 10.6 mmt originated from Brazil, 87 percent of the country’s imports for the month. This was a 9 percent increase from June 2024. The U.S. sent China 1.58 mmt of soybeans in June, 13 percent of the total volume. China’s year to date soybean imports now stand at 31.86 mmt, a 7.5 percent decline from the 2024 pace.

A group of Corn Grower Association representatives from 18 different states have joined to call on President Donald Trump to halt the Make America Healthy Again commission from releasing its recommendations. The concern from these individuals is the potential changes to crop protection products, mainly the impact it will have on U.S. production. U.S. farmers have turned to more conservation tillage practices, and this brings an elevated use of pest and weed control products. There are opinions that lower farmer use of pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides, could cut U.S. yields by 70 percent.

China’s hog population has started to increase. China’s hog population at the end of the second quarter totaled 424.5 million, a 2.2 percent increase from the same period in 2024. China’s sow herd at the end of the quarter was 40.43 million head, steady from the 2024 total. Hog weights are also starting to creep higher. China’s government wants to see a reduction in hog counts to maintain profitability in the industry, and will now have to again take measures to do so.

Chinese officials have announced they are holding talks with the nation’s hog industry to improve its economic outlook. China has seen wide swings in both pork production and prices and the government wants to bring stability to both. The main concern in the country is an oversupply of hogs, indicating culling will likely start to be seen. China’s government also wants to regulate hog weights. In addition, China is looking for ways to reduce the volume of soy meal it uses in feed rations.

Global wheat production is becoming more of a market factor, especially with leading production countries lowering yield potential. Russia’s Ag Minister says the country’s wheat crop will range from 88 million metric tons to 90 mmt this year, with their prior estimate being right at 90 mmt. Drought loss is behind the reduction and has also caused a halt in farmer selling. The Ag Minister also cut Russia’s export forecast to between 43 mmt and 44 mmt, down from the previous estimate for 45 mmt. This tightness in the Russian market has caused the country’s wheat to rally over the past several weeks, supporting the global market as it did.

Other wheat producers cut their production, including Ukraine. Ukraine wheat production is estimated at 21.2 mmt for 2025, just below last year’s 22 mmt. Ukraine’s wheat export forecast is between 15 mmt and 16 mmt, very similar to last year’s quota. Germany predicted a wheat crop of 21.56 mmt today, a 17 percent increase from a year ago. A region of the world getting more attention is Canada as drought is starting to build in the country’s prairies.

Record live cattle futures have started to have an impact on the U.S. beef industry. Packers are cutting back on their coverage at today’s cattle values to limit margin exposure, a move that will add to already elevated retail costs. Future consumer demand is uncertain given some economic outlook models, further reducing any desire to have more ownership of beef than immediately needed.

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