The greatest hindrance to the market right now remains uncertainty. Uncertainty in the market is not uncommon, but when levels become elevated, traders start to exit positions. Market uncertainty right now is at an all-time high, mainly from President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. Trade negotiations continue to take place, but trade is now at the point where it wants results, not just policy framework.

More than anything, trade wants to see export sales take place. This is especially the case with China, which has no U.S. corn, soybean, or wheat purchases on the books. All importers are hesitant to extend coverage from the U.S. right as they do not know if tariff fees will be added later or not.

China’s ag minister has published data showing the country’s pork production from January through June 2025 totaled 30.2 million tons. This was a 1.3 percent increase from the same period in 2024. Hog slaughter in China was up 0.6 percent in the first half of 2025 to 366.2 million head, pushing production up. Chinese feeders are also raising more efficient hogs, adding to pork yields per hog. China also reported a hog herd of 424.47 million head, 2.2 percent more than a year ago. China has stated it wants to streamline its hog industry to make it more profitable, but also to make it less reliant on imports.

Chinese officials indicate the country’s soybean demand will not be as strong to finish the year as earlier expected. China overbought soybeans to start 2025 which has caused an over-supply of not just soybeans but products as well, mainly meal. China has been working to streamline the country’s livestock industry, and this has led to a reduction in total feed consumption. China has also recently established soy meal trade with Argentina, further limiting soybean demand from both the U.S. and Brazil. This is causing concern in the soy complex, especially with China having no U.S. purchases on the books.

Australia revised its wheat balance sheets, trimming its projected demand. Production was left unchanged this month at 34.1 million metric tons, but projected exports were lowered by 3 mmt. This is mainly from a lack of Chinese imports, same as all other global markets are suffering from. Australia’s wheat carryout is projected at 6.2 mmt, well above last year. The 2025/26 Australian crop is estimated at 31 mmt, so this carryin will be needed to cover demand.

The global wheat market is also monitoring the Russian crop quite closely. Russia is seeing its wheat offers firm even as new crop bushels become available. IKAR raised its offers by $3 a metric ton in the past week, and SovEcon raised its offers by $10 per ton. This is sending a signal to the market that drought has likely impacted the crop more than expected. Trade is also monitoring drought in the Canadian Prairies that is likely impacting production there as well.

More attention is starting to fall on the U.S. cattle market. Cattle are not only overbought technically, but starting to become overvalued. The average price of retail ground beef is now above the minimum wage in the United States, and this getting consumer attention. There is a need to ration beef demand given current U.S. cattle numbers, but we are now seeing concerns that if beef prices remain at today’s levels, we will see demand destruction. The loss of Mexican live cattle imports and tariffs on Brazilian beef imports are further tightening U.S. beef supplies, and elevating values.

The Federal Reserve left its interest rates unchanged in the July meeting, which was not that surprising. The vote was not unanimous though, giving the indication we are closer to a cut taking place. The next Fed meeting is Sept. 17, and the current odds of a rate cut are 44 percent. This is actually down from the prior 68 percent chance as tariffs are having more of an impact on global trade. The odds of a cut in October are up to 63 percent though, which economists feel is when we will see a cut.

The National Corn Growers Association has released a statement that members are growing concerned with high input costs. The NCGA, along with dozens of other groups, have sent letters to Trump’s administration voicing concern over rising input costs, mainly for fertilizer. Industry officials are pointing out how rising input costs and falling commodity values will impact U.S. production. They feel trade disputes have only made the situation worse.

These groups claim 2025 fertilizer costs will make up 36 percent of the entire cost of production this coming year. They point out how some input costs have risen 60 percent from a year ago, while corn values have declined 14 percent. There are legitimate concerns that these costs will impact both plantings and production if they do not improve.

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