The most disputed number in the market right now is corn production. Between additional acres and higher yields, the USDA added 1 billion bu of corn to the U.S. supply in the August WASDE report. The push back is coming from how this yield was reached. The USDA has stated that satellite imagery is being used more heavily in determining production. While these images do point to a favorable corn crop, actual field collected data points to a different story.

More cases of pollination issues are surfacing, along with reports the crop is maturing too early. This generates concerns over test weight, especially on later maturing fields. It is going to take a perfect finish to the growing season to come close to the national average for many areas of the Corn Belt from this point. The greatest concern with the crop right now is fungus development, especially in regions where excessive rainfall has removed the residual benefit of crop protection products.

There is more interest in soybean balance sheets. New crop ending stocks are now forecast at 290 million bu, a stocks to use of just 6.7 percent, and a level that needs rationing. The concern on soybeans is the same with corn in that a perfect finish to the crop is needed to reach the USDA’s production estimate for 4.29 billion bu. At this point just a 1 bushel per acre decline in yield would have a significant impact on ending stocks.

The Pro Farmer crop tour only added to the U.S.’s production uncertainty. Pro Farmer put the U.S. corn yield at 182.7 bushels per acre and a crop of 16.2 bbu following its recent tour of Midwest fields. These are well below the current USDA estimates for a 188.8 bpa yield and a 16.74 bbu crop. If correct, this could lead to a decline in carryout this year, not the projected increase. The group’s soybean yield came in at 53 bpa versus the USDA’s 53.6 bpa. Pro Farmer data suggests a soybean crop of 4.246 bbu, slightly less than the USDA’s 4.292 bbu, but enough to drop the U.S. further into a rationing position.

Trade is showing more interest in new crop corn commitments that are already over twice the level of last year. Typically, this demand would be bullish, but much of its support is being negated by the large U.S. corn production numbers we continue to see from private analysts. There are also thoughts that corn demand is front loaded and sales will trail off as the marketing year progresses. While this may be true, the longer we see sales continue, the more likely we will see upward adjustments to demand forecasts.

A source of support for the U.S. cattle market remains uncertain beef imports from Brazil. It is still uncertain if the U.S. will see an impact on Brazil beef imports from proposed tariffs. The U.S. has suffered a short cattle supply in recent years and leaned on Brazilian imports to meet demand. This is especially the case on trimmings that are used for ground beef. U.S. imports of Brazilian beef in 2024 were up 61 percent from 2023, and imports for the first six months of 2025 are up 107 percent from the start of 2024. The U.S. is on track to import 700 million tons of Brazil beef this calendar year.

Data from the United Nations shows world food costs are on the rise. The global food cost index hit 130.1 in July, up 1.6 percent from June. This was the highest reading on the index since February 2023 and is at its highest level in two years. Red meats and vegetable oils were behind the elevated food costs. While up, global food costs are still 18.8 percent below their peak in 2022.

We are starting to see concerns once again directed toward the global economy on a whole. China has stated its July retail sales were up 3.7 percent year over year, 1 percent less than expected. Industrial output was also lower than expected in July. The greatest concern came from China’s property investment that was down 12 percent from July 2024. This came after a U.S. producer price index reading that came in hotter than expected, signaling inflation may rise in upcoming months.

The Brazilian analytical firm CONAB has updated their updated 2024/25 balance sheets. CONAB put the Brazilian soybean crop at 169.65 million metric tons, up slightly from their last estimate. The country’s exports were also bumped up a minimal amount to 106.25 mmt, as were ending stocks to 3.95 mmt. The Brazil corn crop is now estimated at 137 mmt versus 131.9 mmt in its last estimate. This was the result of a larger safrinha crop. CONAB raised Brazil’s corn exports to 40 mmt, up 4 mmt from July, and ending stocks at 10.26 mmt, up 750,000 mt. CONAB left Brazil’s wheat production steady this month at 7.81 mmt.

The Brazilian crush firm ABIOVE also released revised soybean balance sheets for the country. ABIOVE put the Brazilian soybean crop at 170.3 mmt, up 600,000 mt from its previous estimate. Crush is estimated at 58.1 mmt and exports at 109.5 mmt, up 500,000 mt from last month. The group’s meal and exports held steady this month.

We have also received estimates from Argentina on the country’s next corn crop. The Rosario exchange claims Argentine farmers will seed 15-20 percent more corn acres this coming year. This would put the country’s corn acres between 23.5 and 24.5 million acres compared to this year’s 20.5 million. This is a different story than we are receiving from most other corn production areas of the globe, including Brazil, who believe depressed market values and elevated input costs will limit acreage expansion. Argentine farmers will begin seeding their next crop in September.

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