The corn side of U.S. balance sheets saw a 20 million bu increase to old crop ending stocks in the September update, putting it at 1.325 billion bu. The most attention was on new crop production though, where the USDA trimmed the average U.S. corn yield but bumped harvested acres even higher. The U.S. corn yield is now estimated at 186.7 bushels per acre, 2 less than in August, but a 7.4 bushel increase from last year. 

Harvested acres increased to 90 million, up from last month’s 88.7 million. This added 73 mbu to the U.S. crop, taking it to 16.814 bbu, a 13 percent increase from last year and the largest U.S. crop on record. The only change in new crop demand was a 100 mbu increase to exports. This put new crop carryout at 2.11 bbu, a 7 mbu decline from last month. This is a 13 percent stocks to use and indicates a cash value of $3.90 per bushel.

No major changes were made to old crop soybean balance sheets this month, holding carryout at 330 mbu. As with corn, all interest fell on new crop balance sheets. The USDA also found another 200,000 soybean acres this month, but yield held steady at 53.5 bushels per acre, and a slim 9 mbu were added to the U.S. crop. This put production at 4.3 bbu, 66 mbu fewer than last year’s crop. Soybean crush was bumped up 15 mbu and seed was up 3 mbu, but this was negated by a 20 mbu cut to forecast exports. New crop carryout is now projected at an even 300 mbu. This is a stocks to use of 7 percent and warrants price rationing. The average cash value of soybeans is now $10 per bushel.

The only change to domestic wheat balance sheets this month was a 25 mbu increase in exports. This lowered projected ending stocks an equal amount, taking them to 844 mbu. This is a 41.1 percent stocks to use and equates to a $5.10 per bushel cash value.

On the global side, few changes were made to 2024/25 carryout estimates. Global corn carryout is now estimated at 284.18 million metric tons, up from last month’s 283.11 mmt. World soybean carryout is pegged at 123.58 mmt, below the August estimate of 125.19 mmt. Global wheat ending stocks are projected at 262.42 mmt, little changed from last month’s 262.70 mmt.

The world carryout numbers for the 2025/26 marketing year were a little more changed. Corn carryout for this marketing year is now estimated at 281.40 mmt, 1.1 mmt less than last month’s estimate. The world soybean carryout is estimated at 123.99 mmt, 1 mmt less than the August number. Global wheat carryover for this year is estimated at 264.06 mmt, a year-to-year increase of 4 mmt. Notable changes in global crops this month were a 3 mmt increase to Brazil’s 24/25 corn crop and a 3.5 mmt increase to this year’s Australian wheat crop.

Only minimal changes were made to beef and pork balance sheets this month. Beef production for 2025 was cut 100 million pounds to a total of 25.83 billion pounds. Beef production for 2026 increased by 20 million pounds, putting it at 25.49 billion pounds. Beef exports are forecast at 2.64 billion pounds for this year and 2.53 billion pounds from next year, declines of 40 million pounds and 20 million pounds, respectively. Beef imports were bumped up 90 million pounds for 2025 to 5.36 billion and left unchanged at 4.95 billion pounds for 2026. Average steer value projections are now $228.56 per hundredweight for this year and $248.50 for next year.

U.S. pork production was cut 180 million pounds this year to 27.57 billion pounds and left unchanged for 2026 at 28.38 billion pounds. Pork exports saw no changes this month, leaving them at 6.98 billion pounds for 2025 and 7 billion pounds for 2026. Average hog values are now estimated at $69.82 per cwt for this year and $66.00 per cwt for 2026.

The Brazilian analytical firm CONAB has released its final 2024/25 grain and soybean crop numbers. CONAB put Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop at 171.47 million mt, up from the previous 169.65 mmt. Brazil’s soybean exports were increased by 400,000 mt to total 106.65 mmt, and ending stocks jumped from 3.9 mmt to 10.3 mmt. On corn, the crop was raised from last month’s 137 mmt to a final number of 139.67 mmt. CONAB held Brazil’s corn exports to 40 mmt though as domestic demand will consume much of the larger crop. Corn carryout is still expected to increase 12.81 mmt from the group’s prior 10.26 mmt estimate. CONAB is putting Brazil’s wheat crop at 7.54 mmt, down from the previous 7.81 mmt projection.

A commodity that is quickly becoming undervalued is soy oil. Soy oil futures have eroded 12 percent in the past five weeks as they try to compete with cheaper vegetable oils in the global market. The main one of these is palm oil which has at times been 50 percent the value of soy oil. This drop in soy oil comes at the same time, U.S. reserves have fallen to a seven-month low. It is also right ahead of an increase in biodiesel mandates that take effect on Jan. 1 and are expected to raise demand by 67 percent. This will only elevate soy oil demand with a crush industry already running at full capacity.

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is collected from a variety of sources and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor is it intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.