Basis values across the United States have tightened in many regions. This is especially the case for soybeans as the harvest of that crop is already in its later stages and terminals are seeing very light receipts. Unattractive basis values ahead of harvest limited farmer selling interest and instead farmers stored soybeans wherever they could. Not only has soybean basis firmed across the interior market, but at the Gulf and Pacific Northwest as well. Corn basis is also firming in several areas, but with more of that crop to harvest there is less buyer urgency on extending coverage at this time. Water levels on the lower Mississippi River have risen from early fall lows, and this is supporting basis as well.

While farmers have in fact stored more soybeans on-farm this fall, there are questions rising over total production. Soybeans were excessively dry across the U.S. this year, with reports of soybeans coming out of the field at 7 percent moisture, well below the desired 11-12 percent. Soybeans this dry shatter when harvested, and some farmers are reporting yield loss of 5 to 7 bushels per acre. There are also more reports of pods not filling all the way, with several claiming just two soybeans per pod, further cutting into production potential. The soy complex has no room for production losses with current balance sheets. 

We are also seeing adjustments to corn yield estimates as harvest progresses. Some analysts have the US corn yield down to 181 bushels per acre for a national average. While this would be up from a year ago, it is 5.7 bushels per acre lower than the USDA’s September estimate. If correct, this would cut 513 million bu of corn from the US supply. With no changes to demand this would take ending stocks to 1.6 billion bu, which would still be a year to year build, but would be very close to a rationing level.

Not only have analysts trimmed corn yields, but more are raising questions over the quality of that crop as well. The greatest concern right now is test weight, with some later planted fields coming in below average. Reports of corn averaging between 52 and 54 pounds per bushel are not uncommon this year. While this may not impact the entire Corn Belt, it may be enough to drag U.S. overall production lower.

China’s ag Minister released its September soybean import data and the total came in as the 2nd highest on record. For the month China imported 12.87 million metric tons of soybeans, a 13 percent increase from the same month in 2024. China’s cumulative soybean imports for the first three quarters of 2025 now stand at 86.18 mmt, a year to year increase of 5 percent. China has also booked a large volume of soybeans and product from Argentina, which is now just starting to be shipped. China has roughly 400 million bu of soybean needs to cover from now to the end of the year, and the U.S. is quickly becoming the only source with exportable reserves.

China also released its meat imports for September. China imported a total of 544,000 metric tons of meat in September, up 39,000 mt from the August total. Year-to-date Chinese meat imports now total 4.79 mmt, down from last year’s 4.94 mmt by this date. China’s economy continues to struggle, as does its meat demand. The Chinese government is now starting to push feeders to cut their hog inventories, which will undoubtedly lead to more culling and further depress the need for meat imports, especially at today’s market values.

China has also published its grain import quotas for 2026, leaving them unchanged from 2025. This will hold China corn imports to 7.2 million metric tons and wheat at 9.6 mmt. China feels domestic production will be enough that additional imports should not be needed. A contraction in China’s hog herd will also temper China’s corn demand. This was verified by comments from the China Ag Minister, who put the country’s 2026 corn imports at 6 mmt, 1 mmt than its previous estimate.

The Brazilian firm CONAB has released its initial 2025/26 crop estimates. For soybeans, CONAB is forecasting a crop of 177.64 million metric tons compared to last year’s 171.47 mmt. This is mainly from a 5 million acre increase to planted area. Soybean exports are estimated at 112.1 mmt, up 6 mmt from last year. Soybean carryout this year is estimated at 13.4 mmt, up 3.1 mmt from last year.

This year’s Brazilian corn crop is estimated at 138.6 mmt, down 1 mmt from a year ago. CONAB sees Brazil corn exports of 46.5 mmt vs 40 mmt last year. Corn carryout is still expected to increase to 13.36 mmt, up from last year’s 12.8 mmt.

The country’s wheat crop is estimated at 7.7 mmt, up from the prior 7.54 mmt. Brazil is still expected to increase its wheat imports, from 6.4 mmt last year to 6.63 mmt this year.

The USDA is currently predicting Brazilian crops of 175 mmt on soybeans, 131 mmt for corn, and 7.5 mmt for wheat.

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