As the U.S. government gets back to being fully open, the release of backlogged data is taking place. One of these is the Census export totals for August. U.S. corn exports in August were a record 251.8 million bu, an increase of 25.4 percent from last year. Soybean exports in August totaled 83.53 mbu, a three-year high and a 30 percent increase from July. August meal exports were 1.34 million tons, a record for the month, but 4 percent less than in July. Wheat exports totaled 98.7 mbu, a 17 percent increase from a year ago, and the highest August volume in nine years.

Red meat exports in August were mixed. Beef exports were the lowest for any month since June 2020 and the lowest August volume since June 2015 at 190.7 million pounds. Pork exports were the second largest August total on record at 542.8 million pounds.

Building concerns over the U.S. labor market and what it may mean for future red meat demand has impacted both cattle and hog futures recently and created elevated trade volatility. Soft labor markets tend to reduce red meat consumption, especially as we are near the holiday season. This back-and-forth trade has been taking place for the past several weeks and likely will continue as the market weighs this potential slowing demand against low cattle numbers. This is especially the case with beef where the inventory will not build until higher cattle placements are seen, and we are not there yet. It will likely take another 18 to 24 months for this to happen.

The Brazilian soybean crush group ABIOVE revised their soybean balance sheets with mixed numbers. ABIOVE is now predicting a Brazil soybean crop of 177.7 million metric tons, down from their prior 178.5 mmt estimate. This would still be a larger crop than last year’s 172.1 mmt. ABIOVE is forecasting record soybean crush of 60.5 mmt, up 2 mmt from last year. This is expected to generate 12.15 mmt of soy oil and 46.6 mmt of meal. The firm is holding its exports to 111 mmt which would also be 2 mmt more than a year ago.

Much of the interest surrounding Chinese trade has been on soybeans, but we are starting to see more attention on the country’s corn demand. China imported 560,000 metric tons of corn in October, a 500 percent increase from September. This is also 43 percent more corn than China imported in October 2024. Another 1.3 million mt of Brazil corn has just been loaded out to China. Chinese officials have continued to state the country produced a “bumper” grain crop this year despite heavy flooding, and these statements are being doubted. There are also concerns over the quality of the Chinese crop, and imported corn may be needed for blending purposes to make it usable.

Domestic corn and soybean processing margins have started to stabilize after falling from summer highs. The current ethanol profit margin is 20 cents per gallon, about one-third of the summer high. The soybean crush margin is currently an average of $1.40 per bushel. This is nearly $1 a bushel less than last summer’s return but still quite favorable.

The analytical firm S&P Global has released its 2026 US acreage estimates. S&P is expecting U.S. corn acres of 95 million this coming year, down 3.7 million from 2025. U.S. soybean acres are estimated at 84.5 million, an increase of 3.4 million from last year. The corn/soybean ratio is currently at 2.4:1, which does not favor either crop. S&P is forecasting U.S. wheat acres of 44 million this year, down 1.3 million from 2025, mainly to fewer winter crop seedings.

The Argentine soybean planting pace is starting to garner more market attention. Data from the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange shows the Argentine soybean is now 25 percent seeded. This is a 12 percent gain on the week, but the current planting competition is 11 percent behind a year ago. Argentina’s soybean planting is also 3.3 percent behind the five-year average. Areas of excessive rainfall and flooding around Buenos Aries are the main reason for the slow progress.

The question now is if these delays will persist, stretching out the Argentine growing season, and making more of the crop susceptible to late-season stress. This is even more of a factor with a La Nina weather event building, as history shows even moderate events can cut Argentine production by 50 percent.

The United States’ winter weather forecast has been updated with well-defined divisions expected. The top one-third of the U.S. is expected to see below normal temperatures from the Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest through February. The middle third of the U.S. is forecast to see normal temperatures. The southern one-third and the Eastern Seaboard are expected to see above normal temperatures. Precipitation outlooks are just the opposite, with above normal in the north and below normal in the south. One area worth noting is the Ohio Valley, where U.S. drought is currently the worst, but the highest precipitation is forecast.

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is collected from a variety of sources and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor is it intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.