BLOOMINGTON, Ill. – The future of the U.S. domestic fuel market hinges on a potential major policy shift that would require automobile engines to operate on high-octane fuels, according to the executive director of the Illinois Corn Growers Association (ICGA). Speaking during their annual meeting on Nov. 25 at the Illinois Corn Agri-Center, Rodney Weinzierl discussed the need to vastly increase domestic demand for U.S. corn to bolster the sagging market and compete with anticipated electric vehicle sales.

“The auto industry believes that 20 to 25 percent of auto sales will over time be electric to satisfy that segment of the consumer market. This is 9 percent market penetration by 2031. The liquid fuel market is going to continue to erode over time,” Weinzierl said.

As of Nov. 13, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated ethanol production averaged 1.075 million barrels per day, a decline of 48,000 from the previous week and 38,000 barrels on the year. Ethanol stocks, at 22.219 million barrels, were 436,000 less than the previous week. In addition, the Renewable Fuels Association reported net inputs of ethanol purchased by refiners and blenders hit a five-week low.

With ethanol consumption tracking closely with gasoline usage, U.S. fuel ethanol consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels because of lower gasoline consumption. Fuel ethanol consumption tracks closely with motor gasoline consumption because nearly all motor gasoline sold in the United States is about 10 percent ethanol by volume (E10) and virtually all fuel ethanol is used for blending with gasoline, according to the EIA.

Meanwhile, ethanol exports continue to climb, averaging 157,000 barrels per day. This was an increase of 50,000 barrels over the week before and 13,000 barrels over 2024. The U.S. is on track to export a record amount of fuel ethanol for the second year in a row in 2025. In the first seven months of 2025, U.S. fuel ethanol exports averaged 138,000 barrels per day – the highest January through July average since at least 2010, the EIA reported.

Weinzierl noted that although the Trump administration has slowed the domestic incursion of electric vehicles in the U.S. market, consumer demand will keep the electric vehicle market alive for the foreseeable future. “We’re looking at a billion-gallon market loss for ethanol (by 2031),” Weinzierl said, “and we are in a decline now.”

One thing that could reverse the domestic demand reduction would be through Congressional passage of year-round E15 sales, something the ICGA has been lobbying for since 2011, according to the Illinois Corn leader. “To satisfy that billion-gallon loss over the next six years, we need to convince 20,000 to 55,000 retailers across the United States to sell it. That’s what it’s going to take to offset that billion gallons,” Weinzierl said. “We are at around 4,600 or 4,700 stations now, so we need at least a 400 percent increase in the number of stations in six years.”

He went on to say that longer term, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), first passed in 2005, will need to be increased to support biofuels. With no new federal energy policy affecting liquid fuels enacted in the past 17 years, a “major policy shift” toward high-octane fuels is necessary to spark an increase in domestic ethanol demand, according to Wienzierl.

“Fundamentally, we’ve got to change the landscape to be able to better compete with what’s happening with electrification. To me, this whole discussion is about keeping the internal combustion engine around for another two, three, four decades,” he said.

Weinzierl sees opportunities to promote a major policy shift toward renewable fuels production at both the state and federal levels. “I think one of the personality traits of President Trump is that he is willing to take on high-risk, massive change ideas. Changing the liquid fuel policy over time, that is kind of a big thing. If we can make that pitch, maybe he bites, especially if we can reach an agreement with the petroleum industry to save liquid fuels,” he said. “Our governor is very interested not only in the (governor’s) race next year but perhaps in the (presidential) race in three years. That tempers the choices he makes now, because he doesn’t want to make decisions that would hurt him in three years if he announces to run. That’s an opportunity.”

Weinzierl said he is concerned that with cotton prices bottoming out for southern planters, base acres for corn and beans will increase overall, increasing domestic supply while doing nothing to satisfy demand. “There will be more base corn acres next year, and they will not come from Midwest farmers,” he said.