U.S. corn carryout for the 2025/26 marketing year was bumped up 15 million bu to a total of 2.14 billion bu. This was the result of a 15 mbu decrease in feed, seed and industrial demand. For the 2026/27 marketing year, the USDA predicted a yield of 183 bushels per acre and a crop of 15.995 bbu. Harvested acres are estimated at 87.4 million, 3.9 million fewer than last year. This crop is a large 1.03 bbu less than the 2025/26 crop and a smaller crop than this year’s 16.45 bbu of demand. Several sources of corn demand were lowered as demand will be rationed, with total use falling 250 mbu. This still leaves projected corn demand 205 mbu larger than production. New crop ending stocks are projected at 1.957 bbu, a 12 percent stocks to use. This equates to an average cash corn value of $4.40 per bushel.

Several adjustments were also made to soybean balance sheets. Old crop crush was increased 20 mbu while exports were lowered 10 mbu, trimming ending stocks to 340 mbu. The USDA is predicting a 2026/27 soybean crop of 4.435 bbu from a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Harvested acres are estimated at 83.7 million, 3.3 million more than last year. Soybean demand is expected to be 218 mbu larger this year, mainly from crush and exports. New crop soybean carryout is projected at 310 mbu. This is a stocks to use of 6.9 percent and where rationing starts. New crop cash soybeans are expected to average $11.40 per bushel.

Very few changes were made to domestic wheat balance sheets this month. The USDA added 10 mbu to wheat exports but trimmed 7 mbu from milling demand, shaving 3 mbu off ending stocks to 935 mbu. Total new crop wheat production was estimated at 1.56 bbu, 423 mbu less than last year’s crop. This was mainly from the sizable losses in the winter wheat crop. The current wheat crop estimate is 470 mbu less than old crop demand and requires rationing. Even with 156 mbu in demand cuts, ending stocks are forecast to fall to 762 mbu, a 40.7 percent stocks to use. This figures to an average cash value of $6.50 per bushel.

Global balance sheets for the 2025/26 marketing year were in line with trade expectations. Global corn reserves are estimated at 296.96 million metric tons. This was as expected and 2.1 mmt above the March estimate. Global soybean carryout is now estimated at 125.13 mmt, nearly matching estimates and slightly higher than last month’s estimate. World wheat stocks were 3.7 mmt less than the average trade guess and 4 mmt under the March estimate at 279.21 mmt.

More surprises were seen for the 2026/27 global balance sheets, with all totals less than trade was expecting. New crop corn ending stocks are estimated at 277.54 mmt, 11 mmt less than the average trade guess. This is also a 36.5 mmt draw on global corn stocks since the 2023/24 marketing year. The world soybean crop carryout is estimated at 124.78 mmt, 1.4 mmt below the average trade guess. World wheat stocks are now forecast at 275.04 mmt, 5.6 mmt less than trade was expecting.

The USDA further cut U.S. beef production for 2026 in the May balance sheets, lowering production by 240 million pounds to a total of 25.55 billion pounds. Beef production for 2027 is forecast at 25.31 billion pounds. The USDA is forecasting beef exports of 2.36 billion pounds for 2026 and 2.34 billion pounds for 2027. Beef imports are estimated at 6.1 billion pounds for this year and 6 billion pounds for 2027. The average steer value for 2026 is $249.66 per hundredweight and for 2027 the average is $253.75 per cwt.

The USDA is forecasting U.S. pork production of 27.99 billion pounds for 2026 and 28.26 billion pounds for 2027. For this year, the USDA is predicting pork exports of 7.23 billion pounds and for 2027 they are expecting sales of 7.33 billion pounds. The average hog value for this year is now $68.38 per cwt and for 2027 it is $66.50 a cwt.

The high costs of production have been mentioned several times in recent weeks, and now sources in Brazil are speaking up. It is believed that the current cost of production will likely hold soybean acres at last year’s level. Historically, Brazil has expanded soybeans around 3 percent each year, but the rising costs of inputs and fuel may prevent that this year. Another concern in Brazil is the developing El Nino weather event that tends to bring production issues to central and southern Brazil, which is already being noted.

Despite all-time high values, the United States imported a record volume of urea in March. March’s urea imports totaled 1.4 million short tons in March, the most in a month since data started to be collected in 2010. March’s imports took U.S. urea imports to 2.7 million tons for the first quarter of 2026. Much of this was shipped prior to the start of the U.S./Iran war that choked off supplies from that region.

Updated numbers from the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization show that for the 3rd consecutive month, world food costs rose in April. The cost of food rose 1.6 percent in April, taking the FAO’s index reading to 130.7. 

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